A promising offseason for the Boston Red Sox has turned into a winter of discontent in New England, as Alex Bregman's decision to take the Chicago Cubs' money has flipped Craig Breslow's best-laid plans upside down. The Red Sox made no secret that Bregman was priority No. 1 after missing out on Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso earlier in the winter, but they weren't willing to pay what was necessary to get it done. Now, they sure seem up a creek without a paddle that might carry them up the AL East standings.
But not all hope has to be lost. I'm not going to lie to Red Sox Nation and say that a $400 million deal for Kyle Tucker is in the cards; Breslow and owner John Henry have made it pretty clear those aren't waters they want to swim in at the current moment. (That's a conversation for another day.) Still, there are so many good players available in this slow-moving offseason, presenting Boston with the opportunity to save itself from disaster and still build a winner from the ashes of what might have been.
A dream Red Sox lineup after missing out on Alex Bregman
Player | Position |
|---|---|
LF | Roman Anthony |
3B | Isaac Paredes |
RF | Wilyer Abreu |
1B | Willson Contreras |
DH | Masataka Yoshida (and, eventually, Triston Casas) |
SS | Trevor Story |
2B | Marcelo Mayer (Romy Gonzalez against lefties) |
C | Carlos Narvaez |
CF | Ceddanne Rafaela |
Red Sox fans don't want to hear this right now, but it's hard to believe that Boston will pivot from Bregman to another star-level bat. To be clear: That's the biggest outstanding need facing this roster, and in an ideal world in which money were no object to John Henry, we'd be having a very different conversation. In the world we live in, though, I think Breslow is going to take another path.
Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger and Bo Bichette are the three big bats still remaining on the market. Tucker and Bellinger are lefty-swinging outfielders, a poor fit for a team that already has too many of those as things stand (more in that in just a bit). Bichette would seem to be the ideal plan B after whiffing on Bregman, but he seems to have his sights set on following former bench coach Don Mattingly to Philly. And besides: Bichette is younger than Bregman, sure, but he's also a substantially worse defender with a higher asking price — do we really think Boston will be more enthusiastic about paying him?
More realistically, the Red Sox need to add an infielder with some pop on the cheap. Brendan Donovan and Nico Hoerner could be available, but I'm not sure their offensive profiles are what Boston's looking for. Eugenio Suarez remains a free agent, but he's entering his age-34 season and his defense fell off a cliff last year. All of which brings us to step one in our post-Bregman plan ...
Swing a trade for Isaac Paredes
The Astros have an infield logjam to sort out, with Christian Walker, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Jeremy Pena already on board and Yordan Alvarez looking more and more like a DH rather than an outfielder. They also have a need for some young arms, and to trim a bit of payroll. There would seem to be a need here, if Boston is willing to part with some of its considerable pitching depth.
Paredes isn't going to win you any press conferences, especially not in the current environment. And his underlying numbers might not jump off the page. But he's doing to do two things very, very well: get on base, and pull the ball in the air. That's all a righty needs to thrive in Fenway Park, and he can absolutely hit 25 homers with an .800 OPS in a Red Sox uniform. That would go a long way to quelling concerns about this lineup, all for a very reasonable $9-10 million in arbitration.
Is this Red Sox lineup elite? Almost certainly not. Is it as good as it could've been had Breslow played his cards differently? Definitively not. But it is still good, with depth and balance and still some upside remaining depending on the growth of the homegrown guys like Anthony, Casas, Mayer and Kristian Campbell. And hey: Good might just be enough after steps 2 and 3 of our plan: double down on run prevention.
Red Sox should go all-in on run prevention with star-studded rotation
Position | Pitcher |
|---|---|
1 | LHP Garrett Crochet |
2 | LHP Cole Ragans |
3 | RHP Sonny Gray |
4 | RHP Brayan Bello |
5 | RHP Kutter Crawford |
6 | RHP Johan Oviedo |
7 | LHP Patrick Sandoval |
If a truly great lineup is out of reach, then turn your strength into an even bigger one. Boston doesn't need to add more arms just for the sake of it — mid-rotation depth is not an issue here — but Breslow should still be open to adding a true difference-maker to accompany Garrett Crochet at the top. Ragans fits that bill to a tee, and he'd also go a long way toward solving the Red Sox' biggest roster conundrum right now.
Turn Jarren Duran (and a little bit more) into Cole Ragans
Boston tried to pursue a Duran-for-Ragans swap earlier in the offseason, only for Kansas City to shoot them down. And to be clear, a one-for-one deal isn't happening. But what if the Red Sox added some pitching depth and a hitting prospect to the package? The Royals would have to listen pretty intently: There just aren't a ton of other paths for this team to find offensive upgrades, and selling high on Ragans given his injury history isn't the worst idea.
In a perfect world, Boston would turn Duran into a star-caliber hitter at a different position. But that ship likely sailed when Arizona stopped listening on Ketel Marte; there just aren't a ton of fits right now in terms of teams that would want Duran and have a big-name infielder to send back. And if that's the case, turning him into a legit No. 2 makes all the sense in the world, allowing everyone to slot into role for which they're more suited: Gray as a No. 3 and Bello as a No. 4.
So the lineup is at least above-average, and the rotation is elite. Now, there's just one final piece to the puzzle.
Keep building out the bullpen
Boston's bullpen is starting from a good place, with Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock at the back and Greg Weissert and Justin Slaten in middle relief. But you can never have too many relievers, and in particular the Red Sox could use a reliable lefty given that Chapman is chained to the ninth inning. Which is why signing Danny Coulombe makes all the sense in the world: He's been among the better left-handed relievers in the sport of late, and he can pitch against both righty and lefty hitters.
Add Coulombe and one other bullpen flier, and you've got yourself a well-rounded unit. It's not as flashy as Red Sox fans would like, but it could well win the AL East next season and should at the very least ease to a Wild Card spot given the uncertainty around New York and Baltimore. That's a win right now, all things considered.