To quote Leonardo DiCaprio: The New York Mets had our curiosity; but now, after taking the first two games of their three-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies to start the week, they have our attention.
This Mets-Phillies match up could have gone one of two ways. Philly entered Monday with a commanding seven-game edge in the NL East — win the series, and it would essentially salt the division away before we even hit September. But instead, New York has roared to life, putting up 13 runs in game one before rallying in the ninth off of Jhoan Duran to win game two on Tuesday night. Suddenly, what seemed commanding now seems ... well, at least a little shaky.
To be clear, the Phillies remain the clear favorites here: If you'd told them on Opening Day that they'd enter play on Aug. 27 with a five-game lead, they surely would've taken it without a second thought. But this team has had an awfully hard time burying the Mets over the last couple of years, and what seemed like it could be a cake walk is threatening to become a real race to the finish.
So: Just how likely are the Mets to actually win that race? What would need to happen over the season's final few weeks to snatch the division away from their hated rival down I-95? Let's take a deep dive into the state of the NL East.
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Closing schedule does Mets no favors in NL East race
The real fly in the ointment here (you know, aside from the five-game deficit) is that Philly has an easier run in during the month of September than New York does. To illustrate, we've broken down each team's remaining games as of Wednesday into three categories: green light (great opportunity to pick up wins), yellow light (toss-ups, or at least a real risk of a loss) and red light (difficult).
Here's how the Mets' slate breaks down.
Mets schedule
Green light: vs. Marlins (8/28-30), vs. Nationals (9/19-21), @ Marlins (9/26-28)
Yellow light: @ Reds (9/5-7), vs. Rangers (9/12-14)
Red light: @ Tigers (9/1-3), @ Phillies (9/8-11), vs. Padres (9/16-18), @ Cubs (9/23-25)
The positive is that they still have two series with the Marlins and three more games with the Nationals on tap, as well as a huge four-game set in Philly in mid-September that will give them a chance to directly make up ground. The bad news, however, is that everything else will be a challenge: A home date with the Rangers is doable enough, but road tilts with the Reds, Tigers, Phillies and Cubs should all be a challenge, and there's a home series with the Padres mixed in there for good measure.
Philly's schedule isn't a cake walk, but it is comparatively easier.
Phillies schedule
Green light: @ Marlins (9/5-7), @ Diamondbacks (9/19-21), vs. Marlins (9/23-25), vs. Twins (9/26-28)
Yellow light: vs. Braves (8/28-31), vs. Royals (9/12-14)
Red light: @ Brewers (9/1-4), vs. Mets (9/8-11), @ Dodgers (9/15-17)
Road trips to the Brewers and Dodgers will be brutally difficult. Other than that, though ... what is there for the Phillies to really be afraid of? The D-backs have packed it in for 2025, and their final week consists of a homestand against the Marlins and Twins. Take care of the Braves in a four-game set at home to close August, and suddenly things look awfully rosy.
That said, there is still very much a path for the Mets here. They can clinch the season series (and the all-important head-to-head tie-breaker) with a win in the series finale on Wednesday, meaning that all they'd have to do is finish even with the Phillies to nab the division. How might that happen? Let's take a look at one possible path.
What Mets need to do to track down Phillies
It's hard to imagine the Phillies completely collapsing over the season's final month, especially given the schedule they have in front of them. Still, it's not too outlandish to imagine something close to a .500 finish: drop Wednesday's series finale, and then 3-1 vs. Atlanta, 0-3 at Milwaukee, 2-1 @ Miami, 1-3 vs. the Mets, 2-1 vs. Kansas City, 0-3 @ L.A. and 2-1 @ Arizona would mean that even a 5-1 finish against Minnesota and Miami would leave them at 91-71 overall. That wouldn't be the easiest mark for the Mets to reach right now, requiring a 20-10 close, but it's hardly impossible.
For example: Win on Wednesday, then 3-1 vs. Miami, 3-3 across the Detroit/Cincy swing, 3-1 @ Philly, 2-1 vs. Texas, 2-1 vs. San Diego, 3-0 vs. Washington, 1-2 @ Chicago and then 2-1 @ Miami. That gets you to 20-10, wins the season series with Philly and gives New York the NL East title by virtue of the head-to-head tie-breaker.
Of course, the odds are still stacked against them; that's a pretty small needle to try and thread, and it makes both Wednesday's game and the four-game set at Citizens Bank Park next month of the utmost importance. Fail to take care of business there, and you can kiss all of the above goodbye. Still, crazier things have happened — heck, crazier things involving these two teams in a divisional race have happened, and not all that long ago. If New York's offense shows up and they get just a bit more consistency out of their starting rotation, never say never.