Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- A former top prospect has struggled to make an impact at the major league level after two years of opportunity.
- The team's offseason moves have created a logjam at his natural positions, leaving him without a clear role.
- Several alternatives are now producing at the MLB level, raising questions about whether keeping him on the roster still makes sense.
Part of what made the Baltimore Orioles such an exciting team a couple of years ago was that they were very good and had one of MLB's top farm systems. The Orioles had a young up-and-coming team, and still had elite prospects like Coby Mayo in the upper Minors waiting for an opportunity at the big-league level. Well, Mayo's first opportunity finally came in 2024 — and now, two years later, he's done almost as much in the Majors as he had done before getting called up.
To put that another way, it's been a struggle for Mayo to acclimate to life int he Show, and now that he has 143 games of experience, it feels like patience should be running out in Baltimore. It's time for the O's to do something about Coby Mayo, whether it's sending him back down to Triple-A or trading him.
Coby Mayo has not lived up to the hype as a hitter
What made Mayo a special prospect was his bat. A fourth-round pick of the Orioles in the 2020 MLB Draft, he's dominated the Minor Leagues, posting an OPS over .900 in parts of five seasons. He hit as many as 29 home runs and drove in as many as 99 runs in a single season, looking like a potential middle-of-the-order bat in the future. He was one of the best power-hitting prospects in the Minors for years ... but that has not translated to the Majors at all.
Mayo has slashed .196/.277/.346 in 143 MLB games, hitting 16 home runs and driving in 46 runs. He's somehow been even worse this season, slashing .185/.255/.339 with five home runs and 18 RBI in 41 games. He has a 69 OPS+ this season and a 77 OPS+ in his career, showing just how below-average a hitter he's been.
I understand wanting to hold onto hope with a former top prospect, but outside of a strong September last season, when has Mayo ever shown that he can hit at this level? It's not even as if he's been getting particularly unlucky under the hood, and he's striking out over 30 percent of the time. Plus, if he isn't hitting, what does he do? Mayo doesn't steal bases, and he's a subpar defender.
Not only has Mayo done nothing to justify being rostered, but the Orioles have already essentially replaced him.
Orioles already replaced Coby Mayo in the offseason
The Orioles made the surprising decision to sign Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million deal over the offseason, ensuring that he'd play a crucial role in Baltimore for the next half-decade. Alonso was signed to play first base primarily, and the Orioles already use the DH spot for one of their catchers, Adley Rutschman or Samuel Basallo, on most nights. So where, exactly, is there room for Mayo?
Well, Jordan Westburg's injury created an unexpected opening for Mayo to play third base, but is that really where he should be playing? Mayo's -4 Outs Above Average is tied for 32nd of 37 qualified third basemen, according to Baseball Savant. He's not Junior Caminero bad defensively, but he certainly shouldn't be playing the position regularly, especially when he isn't adding value offensively.
Mayo is a first baseman or DH who is blocked at both spots. Rather than try to force it at third base, a position that will close up once Westburg is healthy, why not just try to get something for him that would be more useful?
Orioles have better Jordan Westburg replacements than Coby Mayo
It's not as if Mayo is the only option for the Orioles to consider at the hot corner. In fact, they have two alternatives, both of whom would offer more value than Mayo right now.
Blaze Alexander
Blaze Alexander doesn't come with Mayo's prospect pedigree, but he played really well for a prolonged stretch with the Arizona Diamondbacks last season, and after a poor start to this season, he's picked it up of late. Alexander has gone 12-for-32 (.375 BA) in the month of May, recording more hits in that small sample size than Mayo has in his last 58 at-bats. Why not ride the hot hand, especially with the team struggling?
Jeremiah Jackson
Jeremiah Jackson is another player who didn't generate much buzz as a prospect but has been more productive than Mayo at the big-league level. He was Baltimore's primary second baseman with Jackson Holliday out, and with Holliday back, he can now easily slide over to the hot corner. He's admittedly had a rough go of it lately, but even with his slump, Jackson's .688 OPS is nearly 100 points higher than Mayo's.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
Christian Encarnacion-Strand is another former top prospect (albeit not as highly regarded as Mayo) who hasn't done much at the MLB level. The Orioles acquired him in a mid-April deal with the Cincinnati Reds, and while he's best suited to play first base, he's played some third in Triple-A for the O's and has swung a hot bat, posting a .925 OPS with Norfolk. It's possible that his success won't translate to the Majors, but perhaps a change of scenery is what he needed. If it works out, Baltimore might've lucked into something great. If not, Encarnacion-Strand could not be much worse than Mayo offensively or defensively.
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