The St. Louis Cardinals 2025 season has been predictably average. After a shutout loss to the Miami Marlins on Tuesday, the Cards sit just one game over .500. Should they buy or sell? The answer isn't so clear, as the Cardinals front office continues to dispel rumors of an all-out fire sale, but won't rule out trading away established veterans for young pieces in return. That latter point is likely what John Mozeliak and Chaim Bloom would prefer to follow through on. At the center of that discussion is Nolan Arenado, one of the best defensive third basemen of his era but rapidly declining at the plate. Dealing Arenado has not been an easy task for Mozeliak, but it's a problem he'll have to solve to win the deadline and save his reputation.
Arenado has reportedly turned down two trades already – one to the Houston Astros and another to the Los Angeles Angels – but the Cardinals hope he is more desperate to play for a contender now than when those deals failed.
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Why the Astros could try and trade for Nolan Arenado again
The Astros tried to trade for Nolan Arenado once, but he turned them down. The reasoning behind that deal falling apart is relatively unknown, but Arenado is comfortable in St. Louis – a place he has called home for awhile now – and didn't want to give that up for a starting spot at third base on the Astros. Now, matters may have changed some.
First, the Cardinals are not a very good team, and seem determined to trade Arenado at every turn. That will only increase when Chaim Bloom takes over. Second, the Astros are postseason-bound and need a third baseman. Isaac Paredes could be out long term, and Arenado would be able to contribute on a winning club for the next few seasons. This desperation from the Astros point of view is exactly why they'd consider asking the Cardinals, again, if Arenado is available.
John Mozeliak could save his Cardinals reputation
Trading Arenado to Houston – a team he has already said he doesn't want to play for – will take some convincing. The Cards are unlikely to get much in return for Arenado unless they pay a good portion of his remaining contract, but the Astros infield depth is in such a bad spot it provides Mozeliak with some negotiating power he wouldn't have with other teams.
For Mozeliak, completing such an implausible task could help him go out on a good note. Cardinals fans want to celebrate the next young core of stars, like Masyn Winn and Brendan Donovan (who St. Louis should not trade), rather than holding onto the past. The longer Arenado remains a Cardinal, the harder that will be to achieve.