Does Kyle Schwarber's fast-moving free agency favor a return to Phillies or another suitor?

The clock has officially hit December, and Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber remains a free agent … for now. Of all the premier free agent hitters on the open market, Schwarber is the one about whom we’ve seemingly heard the most credible reports over the last month, especially ahead of next week’s Winter Meetings.

MLB Network’s Jon Morosi added fuel to the fire on Monday, reporting that Schwarber is expected to sign before Chicago Cubs All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker. Schwarber, who turns 33 in March, is fresh off finishing second in the NL MVP race after a 56-home run, 132-RBI campaign for the NL East-winning Phillies. Although he’s primarily a DH at this stage in his career, Schwarber is nonetheless expected to command a contract well exceeding the four-year, $79 million deal he inked with the Phillies ahead of the 2022 season.

It’s too early to know just when Schwarber will sign. However, if his free agency accelerates within the coming days, we’ll see whether or not that bodes well for the Phillies.

Should the Phillies be concerned about Kyle Schwarber leaving in free agency?

As of Tuesday, Dec. 2, there has been no credible news regarding Schwarber potentially narrowing down a list of teams that he intends to consider joining. ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently shared that the Mets are “in the mix” for Schwarber, though the Mets just reportedly signed former New York Yankees closer Devin Williams to a three-year, $51 million contract. We’ll see if that financial commitment impacts their ability to add a marquee slugger like Schwarber, first baseman Pete Alonso, or third baseman Alex Bregman.

However, none of this should add to any anxiety that the Phillies might have about Schwarber signing elsewhere. If Schwarber wants to wrap up his free agency before the new year, that doesn’t mean that he’s not going to re-sign with the Phillies. It simply means that he likely would rather go into the holiday season knowing that he has a contract in place, whether it’s with the Phillies, Mets, or the beloved “mystery team” that always finds its way into free agent conversations.

The counter is that if Schwarber planned to re-sign with the Phillies, he would have already done so. Anyone familiar with baseball, though, knows that’s not always the case. Aaron Judge didn’t sign his new contract with the New York Yankees until shortly before Christmas 2022. Alonso waited until last February to rejoin the Mets after a prolonged free agency. 

But does this mean that the Phillies shouldn’t worry at all? Of course not. Schwarber is among the top free agents available regardless of position, and for good reason. There is no reason not to think that a team desperate enough to win won’t hand him a $100 million contract, feeling comfortable that he’ll maintain his consistent power stroke — Schwarber averaged 47 home runs and a .856 OPS during his four years in Philadelphia — long enough to capture a World Series title.

At this stage, we feel comfortable predicting that Schwarber will sign somewhere before Christmas. In fact, he might even put pen to paper at the Winter Meetings. The best thing that the Phillies can do right now is relax, continue to negotiate with Schwarber and agent Casey Close, and hope the duo agrees to leave a nice present in the two-time defending NL East champion’s stocking.