Fresh off a second straight NLDS exit that has fans asking very legitimate questions about this core, the Philadelphia Phillies need to hit a home run this offseason if they want to finally get over the hump in 2026. While multiple additions are needed, the job starts with making sure one particular player doesn't leave: star slugger Kyle Schwarber, the team's best hitter this season and one of the most impactful playoff performers in recent MLB history.
It's hard to imagine this Phillies team making a World series run next year without Schwarber atop the lineup. He's simply too valuable, on the field and in the locker room, for a team that only saw one other player crack the 20-homer mark in 2025. Then again, if Schwarber's reported asking price is to be believed, it's also hard to imagine him sticking around.
According to the Inquirer's Scott Lauber, "the expectation within the sport is Schwarber will seek five years, unprecedented for a DH who will be 33 next season.” That sort of contract would take Schwarber through his age-37 season, while likely paying him somewhere between $25-30 million per. If you just got lightheaded, well, I don't blame you; that's a lot of money to pay a bat-only DH to an age at which productive offensive seasons are few and far between in modern MLB history. Then again, you could also argue that Philly can't afford not to.
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Kyle Schwarber's asking price comes with all sorts of risk
Far be it from me to bet against a hitter like Schwarber. He seems to only be getting better with each passing year, refining his approach at the plate — his K rate, while still ugly, has fallen in each of the past three seasons, while his walk rate remains elite — and doing as much damage on contact as anybody in baseball. He hasn't had a less-than-excellent season since 2020; he's simply one of the best hitters in the game, full stop.
Of course, if it were that simple, Philly would've locked him up to an extension nine months or so ago. How good Schwarber has been isn't an indication of how good he's going to be, especially four or five years into the future. And recent history isn't kind here.
Schwarber posted a 152 wRC+ this season, the sixth-best mark in the league behind Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, George Springer, Cal Raleigh and Juan Soto. Since the 2000 season, only eight players have matched or exceeded that mark in their age-35 campaign. The numbers only get grimmer with age: Only three players did it in their age-36 season, and two of them (Barry Bonds and Manny Ramirez) have been credibly linked to PED use.
It's just very, very hard to keep producing at or near Schwarber's level as you go through your mid-30s. Maybe Schwarber is the exception that proves the rule here. If he's not, though — if he becomes merely an above-average hitter rather than an exceptional one — then the Phillies are stuck with a player who adds zero value with his fielding or baserunning and who doesn't have enough impact offensively to come anywhere near recouping his salary.
A three- or four-year deal would mitigate a ton of that risk. Then again, Schwarber understandably wants to lock in a contract that will likely take him through the remainder of his career. And the reality is that the Phillies might have to grant him that wish or face some pretty dire consequences.
Phillies have no obvious replacement if they lose Kyle Schwarber
Let's say Dave Dombrowski plays hard ball with his star here, and Schwarber walks elsewhere on a massive deal. What's Philly's plan B then? Alex Bregman, a player who certainly brings more defensive value but who would still leave a hole in the middle of the order? Pete Alonso might fit, but he's been clear that he doesn't want to DH and the Phillies seem committed to keeping Bryce Harper at first base. Plus, is paying the Polar Bear for seven years really all that different than paying Schwarber, a more valuable hitter, for five?
From there, this market starts to get very thin on impact bats. You could slot Bo Bichette in at third base, maybe, but that doesn't feel like the best fit (and wouldn't replace the slugging Schwarber brings in the slightest). The next best option might be ... former Atlanta Braves DH Marcell Ozuna, who's about to enter his age-35 season and was wildly inconsistent in 2025.
The Phillies need Schwarber more than he needs the Phillies, which is a tough position for any team to be in entering offseason. Philly will likely try to call Schwarber's bluff, pointing out (rightfully) that there simply aren't many contending teams that have $25-30 million per year to burn and a hole at DH. (The Yankees and Dodgers are automatically out, while even the Cubs would have a hard time making it work.) If they get too cute, though, their own fans might never forgive them.