Kyle Tucker trade backfiring on Cubs in one painful way at the worst time

Kyle Tucker's homecoming was spoiled by rising star Cam Smith, who is giving the Houston Astros a much-needed boost on offense and on Friday night delivered the Chicago Cubs another reminder of their painful mistake. While Tucker is producing at an All-Star level and will be in MVP conversations at the end of the year, the Astros are grinning ear-to-ear as they're watching their 22-year-old rookie become a cornerstone in Houston.

The Cubs certainly don't regret trading for Tucker, needing a legit star to plug into their lineup in 2025. However, Jed Hoyer has to be re-thinking his decision to include Smith in the blockbuster trade because halfway through this year Smith is decisively the most surprising part of the deal.

Cam Smith revenge game vs. Cubs is only reason to regret Kyle Tucker trade

On Friday night, Smith was perfect at the plate, going 2-for-2, with a pair of walks. The right-handed hitter had the biggest swing of the game, crushing a three-run homer off Cade Horton in the fourth inning that put the Astros ahead 7-0, en route to their 7-4 win over the Cubs.

Smith was selected 14th overall in the 2024 draft out of Florida State by the Cubs. The corner infielder quickly ascended in the minor leagues, ending his first pro season at Double-A in Chicago's minor league system. His rising stock put him on par with top Cubs' prospect Matt Shaw, as both players were at the top of Houston's wishlist in the offseason when the Tucker trade talks were progressing.

The Cubs eventually caved in and sent Smith, along with Isaac Paredes and Hayden Wesneski for Tucker.

Although Smith wouldn't say it directly, his attitude against the Cubs was noticeably different and his manager Joe Espada took notice on Friday night. Via MLB.com:

Astros manager Joe Espada said he sensed Friday’s game meant a little bit more to Smith from the moment he arrived at Daikin Park. “He played like it,” he said. “He’s turning the corner where he’s getting big hits in big games, but I think he was playing with a little bit of an edge today. Even when he walked in, he had a little different feel to him today.”

Cubs regret trading Cam Smith, despite Kyle Tucker's monster year

While the Astros are getting hot heading into July, winning 13 of their last 16 games led by Smith's best stretch of the year, the Cubs have been meandering in June. They once held a 6.5 game lead in the NL Central, but thanks to a 9-11 stretch the Cubs enter Saturday only with a two-game advantage over the Milwaukee Brewers.

Smith's big game against the Cubs really hit a sore spot because Shaw, who the Astros also wanted but the Cubs decided to keep, has been struggling for most of the year. Shaw began the regular season on the Opening Day roster, but was then optioned to Triple-A in the middle of April. The third baseman returned after a month to reset in the minors and although he produced better results in May, Shaw's been close to an automatic out in June, recording a 49 wRC+ this past month.

Overall in 2025, Shaw is slashing .222/.297/.318, with a pair of home runs in 52 games. Smith, who came up as a third baseman, now has a .773 OPS, slashing .277/.353/.420, with six home runs in 68 games. Smith's 123 wRC+ currently ranks sixth-best among all rookie hitters.

As the Cubs explore the trade market to improve their starting rotation, they'll also be kicking themselves for possibly undervaluing Smith. Less than a year after he was drafted, Smith is helping the Astros build a strong division lead, while the Cubs are watching theirs slip away.