There isn't much to get excited about with the Pittsburgh Pirates right now, but Paul Skenes certainly is a player on their team worth praising. Skenes is not only one of the most marketable players in the game, but he's arguably the best pitcher on the planet. With his dominance in mind, Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette shined a light on what Skenes' future with the organization will look like.
.@_NoahHiles says on @937theFan there’s a 1% chance Paul Skenes signs a 2nd contract with the Pirates.
— Andrew Fillipponi (@ThePoniExpress) July 16, 2025
So you're telling me there's a chance? Well, sure, but not really. Hiles gives it a one-percent chance that Skenes signs a second contract with Pittsburgh. That, obviously, is heartbreaking for Pirates fans, but it's far from surprising given their owner and their history as a franchise.
Skenes might be in his second MLB season, but the clock is already ticking. That reality makes it even harder to justify the Pirates selecting Seth Hernandez with the No. 6 overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft.
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Unlikelihood of a Paul Skenes extension makes Seth Hernandez pick even more head-scratching
This is nothing about how good Hernandez is or will be. I think Hernandez has the potential to be one of the best pitchers in the entire class, and clearly the Pirates agree. But while there's a lot to like with Hernandez, it's hard to say he was the right fit for this Pirates team.
With Skenes almost certainly a goner by 2029 at the latest, shouldn't the Pirates be trying to maximize their window in which they're guaranteed to have the best pitcher in the world? If the answer to that is no, why not just trade him now, when his value will never be higher?
Hernandez has a lot of potential, but there are two areas of concern to highlight. First, the Pirates, thanks largely to Skenes, have the foundation of a really strong rotation when healthy. There's a real chance that sometime next season we'll see a rotation of Skenes, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, Bubba Chandler and Hunter Barco, which is outstanding. Adding Hernandez to that group obviously makes it better, but did they really need him, especially considering their moribund offense?
Second, Hernandez is coming out of high school, meaning he'll need at least a couple of years to be MLB-ready. Let's say he's ready by the second half of the 2027 campaign, which honestly feels aggressive. That means that the Pirates will have 1.5 years, at most, with which to try and win with Skenes.
Wouldn't it have been wiser to, instead, take either a college arm who can help the team sooner or a bat that fills a need? The main reason why the Pirates are one of the five worst teams in the Majors is because of their offense. Instead of taking a hitter like Aiva Arquette, who might be able to help out sometime sooner rather than later, the Pirates chose to take a high school arm who is a ways away.
I understand and am supportive of teams who take the player they believe is the best available rather than drafting for fit in most cases, but in the Pirates' situation, how do you not take a player who can help the team soon-ish, and/or someone at a position of need with your first-round pick?
Hernandez might be great, but he does not help maximize the Skenes window, which is extremely short, at all. There's a real chance that the dream rotation Pirates fans are salivating over is never formed, and there's a real chance Skenes is traded before Hernandez is even ready. It's hard to call the Pirates selecting arguably the best player available a bad thing, but given this Skenes report, it's hard to justify the Hernandez selection.