With the World Series in the rearview mirror, Hot Stove season is officially upon us. Naturally, most of the attention will be spent on the players likely to make the most money in free agency: Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger, Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, the list goes on. But while stars certainly go a long way in October — just ask the two-time defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers — recent MLB history is littered with teams who paid market price for big names and quickly lived to regret it.
Free agency is not typically the place to look for bargains, not with so many teams with so much money to spend and so few players to spend it on. But there are still smart buys if you know where to look, and that's what we're here to do today. We consulted Spotrac's projected market value for each 2025-26 free agent, a ballpark estimate for how much each player is likely to make per year on their new contracts. And a few names stood out as potential values.
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1. INF Bo Bichette
Expected annual average value: $23.3 million
I understand the red flags here. Yes, Bichette was one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball this season. Yes, he's just one year removed from a season in which he posted a .598 OPS across 81 games. Yes, he's uniquely reliant on his hit tool, and if that slips with age, the bottom could fall out quickly.
But man, what a hit tool! That down 2024 sure looks like an outlier now: Bichette got back to raking this year, and he's now put up a 120 OPS+ or better in six of seven seasons in the big leagues. All he does is put the barrel on the ball, and he shows no signs of slowing down any time soon.
Plus, he won't turn 28 until March. Even if you sign him to a seven- or eight-year deal, you're not really worried about a physical decline through at least the first five or six of those years. If he's open to moving off of short (he's given no indication to the contrary so far), he should at least be passable at second or third. He's below the likes of Cody Bellinger, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Schwarber in terms of expected market value, and I just can't agree with that. He's too good a hitter and too valuable a player, and I'd comfortably pay him $23 million per.
2. 1B Josh Naylor
Expected annual average value: $15.07 million
First basemen historically haven't made for great investments in free agency, but Naylor is no ordinary first baseman. While he hit 20 homers this season and 31 in 2024, he's a far more contact-oriented player than those numbers suggest, running very good K rates throughout his career. And while he's not fleet of foot, he somehow finds ways to contribute on the bases; he swiped 30 bags this season, for crying out loud.
Naylor is a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat who's athletic enough to contribute in other ways. He doesn't come with the sorts of red flags you usually have to stomach, and the fact that he doesn't play a premium position means that you're not going to have to be on the hook for a six- or seven-year contract. His offense alone is worth $15 million a year to a contender; if you can get him at something like 4/$60 million, you should jump at it.
3. RHP Zac Gallen
Expected annual average value: $18.7 million
Gallen got off to a truly horrendous start to his 2025 season, a big part of the reason why the Arizona Diamondbacks were an afterthought in the NL West race. Things got so bad that a D-backs team desperate to sell at the trade deadline (Naylor, Eugenio Suarez and Merrill Kelly all left town) couldn't find a suitor for him, a shocking fall for a guy who finished top-five in NL Cy Young voting in both 2022 and 2023.
But then a funny thing happened down the stretch: Gallen started to look a whole lot more like that guy again. He put up a 3.97 ERA in the second half, with his changeup in particular helping him neutralize left-handed batters after getting bludgeoned by lefties earlier in the year. There was no noticeable decline in stuff, and with a better home park and a better defense behind him, he could be in for a major bounce back.
He just turned 30 in August, but with the going rate for starting pitching right now, he'll come close to making back this projected annual value even if he just eats up a bunch of league-average innings. And we know that the ceiling is a whole lot higher than that, which makes Gallen an intriguing second-tier option in a starter class that's full of landmines.
4. RHP Devin Williams
Expected annual average value: $5.75 million
There may not be an easier positive-regression candidate in the entire league next year than Williams, who endured a very rocky season with the New York Yankees. The former All-Star lost the closer's role thanks to a nightmarish start that featured several implosions, but there's reason to think that had much more to do with bad luck than anything else — his projected ERA was 3.04, and his FIP was 2.68.
His ability to miss bats and get strikeouts remains the same as it was during his peak with the Milwaukee Brewers. He also started pitching a whole lot better down the stretch and even into the playoffs. He didn't turn into a pumpkin over the span of 12 months at the age of 31; trust the stuff and buy the dip. While relievers like Edwin Diaz and Robert Suarez might break the bank, Williams is a smart buy-low option.
5. 1B/DH Rhys Hoskins
Expected annual average value: $7 million
Hoskins became something of a forgotten man in Milwaukee; he went down with injury in mid-summer, then had his starting job Wally Pipp'd by the Andrew Vaughn breakout. He made just one start in September and didn't appear in a single game in the postseason.
It's easy to forget now, but before his injury, Hoskins was crushing the ball, with an .849 OPS through the end of May. The batted-ball profile is as solid as ever — he still hits it hard and hits a ton of pull-side fly balls — and he's only 32 years old. His limitations are obvious at this point, and he gives you next to nothing in the field or on the bases. There's no reason why he can't get back to being a 25-homer regular who gets on base a ton, though, and that's a bargain at this price point.
6. RHP Raisel Iglesias
Expected annual average value: $8.8 million
Speaking of pitchers who were written off early only to play to the back of the baseball card late. It didn't matter much to the tanking Atlanta Braves, but Iglesias was elite in the second half, with a 1.76 ERA and 31 strikeouts across 30.2 innings after the All-Star break. His velocity continues to decline in his mid-30s, but it hasn't affected his changeup's ability to get whiffs, and when he's on, he's still a quality high-leverage guy.
There aren't many of those to go around in this free-agent class, and the ones that will probably get paid handsomely on the open market. I'd much rather pay him $9 million a year than fork over more for someone like Emilio Pagan.