The Philadelphia Phillies are living in the moment. The Phils have the No. 2 seed in the National League and a solid advantage on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the second-best record in the national league. In doing so, they'll earn a first-round bye, avoiding the NL Wild Card round altogether. As we've seen in past postseasons, that so-called advantage can come with its own challenges. While the Rob Thomson and his team are rightly focused on the task at hand, Dave Dombrowski and the front office must keep one eye on the future, and namely Kyle Schwarber's upcoming free agency.
Schwarber will be one of the top free agents available this winter. Despite playing DH and striking out more than most, Schwarber is arguably the most consistent power hitter in the game, and because of that should command a lot of money on the open market. USA Today's Bob Nightengale remains confident Schwarber stays in Philadelphia...though he has been wrong before.
"Forget all of the talk, Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber isn’t going anywhere this winter. He loves Philadelphia, and more important, the Phillies love him. They simply will not be out-bid by any team, knowing how vital he is to them as not only their greatest power hitter, but their ultimate clubhouse leader," Nightengale wrote.
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.
Why the Phillies keeping Kyle Schwarber is no sure thing
Are...are we sure about that? Nightengale is going out on a limb here to make such a prediction before the MLB Winter Meetings. It's not like Dave Dombrowski and Schwarber's representation are in constant contact at this point in the season. Nightengale is also a notorious jinx in a sport that believes in the inexplicable. Just Saturday night he tweeted about Yoshinobu Yamamoto's no-hitter through 8.2 innings pitched. You'll never guess what happened next – the Orioles came back and won!
ESPN's Jeff Passan, for one, gave a more realistic take on Schwarber earlier this week that this writer is more inclined to believe.
"Schwarber's total package will ultimately push some of them off such concerns and trigger a bidding war. If he wants, he can get at least four years. The salary, at that term, should be at least $30 million a year. And although remaining in Philadelphia makes the most sense, enough teams have holes at DH -- looking at you, Texas, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston, Detroit and Cincinnati -- that no amount of labor unrest will cause Schwarber's market to dry up," Passan wrote.
Phillies have a lot of competition for Kyle Schwarber, and cannot afford to lose him
The Phillies should be favored to keep Schwarber. He has a home in Philadelphia and the fanbase loves him. But as Passan mentions, he'll have a large market, meaning the Phillies should expect a bidding war of their own. If keeping Schwarber is their top priority over signing the likes of, say, Kyle Tucker (who Passan also linked them to), they will have to pay up.
Schwarber is nearing the 50-home run market once again, and has an OPS+ of 151. While he doesn't play the field, he makes enough of an impact with his bat and isn't slowing down anytime soon. The Phillies would be silly to let him walk, but in the end it may not be up to them if THIS many teams are interested in his services.
The offseason is months away, but Dombrowski should get an early start on his homework, specifically related to what kind of contract would get the job done early in free agency.