MLB overreactions: Red Sox and more teams who might already regret their offseasons

Welcome to MLB overreactions, also known as “which major American cities are currently underperforming their massive media market’s expectations one single week into an 162-game season?” We’re so glad you’re here!

We’re just a week in to a six-month marathon, and while level heads will tell you it is a long season with lots of hot and cold spells for every team, six or seven games are more than enough to lose a playoff series. And from where I’m standing (I’m actually sitting at the moment) in Boston, you’d think we just took a time machine back to October 17, 2004, and got swept by the Yankees in the ALCS instead of starting the 3-0 comeback. It is dark out here.

I must, however, stress the over part of the overreactions. These are not rational, nor are they mathematically sound; these aren’t even really reactions at all, given that we have played 1/27th of the 2026 season. Data scientists have already clicked away due to sample-size bias. If you are not a data scientist, though, I encourage you to enjoy the following.

1. Boston Red Sox (1-5) 

Overreaction: The Red Sox offseason was all smoke

Leading with the Red Sox is an effort to improve my credibility as an analyst, given that I myself am a Red Sox fan and, despite my desires to say “well, it’s a small sample size” … I have watched every single minute of Red Sox baseball so far, and it has been TERRIBLE for the entire season oh my god guys what are we going to do.

It feels like every possible thing that could have gone wrong has, and then, having run out of things to go wrong, we unearthed new, previously unheard of things that could go wrong and then those also went wrong. Roman Anthony had a great Opening Day and has been awful since, only hitting a garbage-time, pinch-hit home run in the finale of a series sweep at the hands of the Houston Astros. Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray looked like they were haunted by the ghosts of Dustin May and Walker Buehler, and, save for Wilyer Abreu — who apparently is amazing now — all the World Baseball Classic ballers have been seriously cold.

It is possible that Yordan Alvarez, who went 6-for-11 in the recent series against Boston, is simply the greatest pure slugger of all time. It’s also possible that the Red Sox’s lack of investment in their infield after the departure of Alex Bregman and totally ignoring “power” in their lineup (FanGraphs projects zero Boston hitters to crack 20 home runs) have led to things like Caleb Durbin going 0-for-18 to start the year and a second-base platoon between Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Marcelo Mayer that no one is enjoying. It’s a small sample size, sure, but it’s a small sample size that has absolutely sucked.

2. San Francisco Giants (3-4)

Overreaction: This lineup lacks enough pop to succeed in the NL West

Also known as “Red Sox West” because they are a huge baseball market that somehow doesn’t spend that much money and has basically no playoff success in the last decade, Giants fans probably wish they had more to show for their team's splashy offseason. "Splashy" not because they spent a lot of money on players (they did not) but because they hired Tennessee baseball coach Tony Vitello as their manager, the first college coach ever to transition directly to the big job in the pros with no prior professional experience.

The Giants were shut out in two of their four losses and nearly had it happen for a third time in the final game of their San Diego series, posting a league-worst 2.33 runs/game so far. Put simply, they are in an extremely tough division that will not allow for middling offensive output. 

They traded for Rafael Devers from “Giants East” (the Red Sox) last year, and it may turn out to be one of the rare “everyone lost” deals if Devers can’t start hitting like an All-Star again — he’s no longer even a league-average defensive third baseman, so paying out the rest of a $313 million deal to a designated hitter is not the type of thing a tax-avoidant San Francisco team is going to want to deal with. 

3. New York Mets (3-4)

Overreaction: Offseason losses will matter more than we thought

Guess who’s playing the San Francisco Giants this weekend? That’s right: your New York Mets, who just lost a series to the St. Louis Cardinals (who aren’t good), and whose lineup has been really bad. It’s a stoppable force meeting a moveable object. It’s a tax-avoidant underperforming team versus a tax-loving underperforming team. Should be fun for everyone. 

The Mets had a … fine offseason. They lost Edwin Diaz and Pete Alonso, two team staples, but added Bo Bichette, a player who will have to pan out to replace the offense they lost while improving their defense in a shift to third base. He’s currently 3-for-27 (.111) on the young season, a batting line that doubles as last Friday’s date! Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor will continue to be the cornerstones of this offense, but if New York wants to get out of the regular season, they will have to be more than that.

4. Philadelphia Phillies (3-3)

Overreaction: The Phillies’ star trio is washed up

A classic case of stars needing to star for a team to work. Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have been below-average hitters so far this season, and this is a team that is expensive, top-heavy and ready to win now. They had a great Opening Day (like the Red So—sorry, I’ll stop), but now things are feeling significantly less fun. 

Bringing Schwarber back on a big-money deal was a risk, but one that the Phillies were willing to take given his unmatched power and clubhouse leadership. Harper had a weird offseason, a weird World Baseball Classic and a weird opening week, and Turner has struggled to stay healthy in recent years. But the Phillies are married to this trio, and they will have to produce. Along with (at worst) a top-three rotation in baseball, this team could win 100 games. Starting out a cool .500 is not going to cut it.