We're still a good three months away before we have the MLB Playoff bracket set in stone officially and get into the magic that is October baseball. However, with the MLB Trade Deadline looming, it's hard not to look at the standings each day and think about the postseason. Which teams are in great position like the Detroit Tigers, which teams are close but on the outside looking in like the St. Louis Cardinals, and which teams are somewhere in-between.
The July 4 holiday always feels like a strong check-in point. We have about a week until the All-Star break gets underway, we're a bit past the midway point of the regular season and, for the most part, we have an idea of what these teams are and how things coud shake out.
So where does the MLB Playoff bracket for both the American League and National League stand entering play on July 4? Let's dive into what we have in front of us like we're Aaron Boone and see how the standings and the bracket would shake out given that.
American League Playoff Bracket if the season ended before July 4
Seeding | Record | Path Into Playoffs | First Round Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
1. Detroit Tigers | 54-34 | AL Central Winners | BYE |
2. Houston Astros | 52-35 | AL West Winners | BYE |
3. Toronto Blue Jays | 49-38 | AL East Winners | vs. 6 Mariners |
4. New York Yankees | 48-39 | First AL Wild Card | vs. 5 Rays |
5. Tampa Bay Rays | 48-39 | Second AL Wild Card | vs. 4 Yankees |
6. Seattle Mariners | 45-42 | Third AL Wild Card | vs. 3 Blue Jays |
Just Missed Out: Los Angeles Angels (43-43, 1.5 back in Wild Card), Texas Rangers (43-44, 2.0 back in Wild Card), Boston Red Sox (43-45, 2.5 back in Wild Card)
Just like everyone expected, the Tigers are the class of the American League right now. They have the second-best record in all of baseball so far this season and, as of right now, don't have any real competition in the division as they hold a 12.5-game lead over the Twins and Guardians, who are tied for second place in the Central.
Of course, the biggest recent development comes in the AL East after the Toronto Blue Jays completed a four-game sweep of the New York Yankees to push into the division lead and put the Pinstripes atop the Wild Card race. That could change, but things in the Bronx appear quite tenuous right now and the trade deadline could be huge for what the second half looks like for the Yankees.
The Wild Card race after the Yankees and Rays gets interesting. Cal Raleigh has helped keep the Mariners afloat, though they look to have little chance of catching the Astros right now, while the Angels also feel like a house of cards. One has to wonder how much more of a factor the Boston Red Sox would be if Rafael Devers was still on the team, but also don't count out the Texas Rangers, who have enough talent and pedigree to still get hot if they don't sell at the deadline.
National League Playoff Bracket if the season ended before July 4
Seeding | Record | Path Into Playoffs | First Round Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
1. Los Angeles Dodgers | 56-32 | NL West Winner | BYE |
2. Chicago Cubs | 52-35 | NL Central Winner | BYE |
3. Philadelphia Phillies | 51-36 | NL East Winners | vs. 6 Padres |
4. New York Mets | 50-38 | First NL Wild Card | vs. 5 Brewers |
5. Milwaukee Brewers | 48-39 | Second NL Wild Card | vs. 4 Mets |
6. San Diego Padres | 46-40 | Third NL Wild Card | vs. 3 Phillies |
Just Missed Out: St. Louis Cardinals (47-41, lose Wild Card tiebreaker), San Francisco Giants (47-41, lose Wild Card tiebreaker), Cincinnati Reds (45-42, 1.5 back in Wild Card)
Unlike in the AL where the Wild Card race is a bit lackluster, it's all systems go in the NL. The Padres, Cardinals and Giants are all effectively tied for the third Wild Card spot right now, but San Diego currently owns the tiebreaker simply by having fewer losses — though that's because they've played fewer games.
However, we know the NL East and NL West races are going to result in some Wild Card drama as well, even if the Atlanta Braves are falling too far behind the Phillies and Mets and if the Dodgers keep their stranglehold on their division (and the rest of baseball).
The big question is how aggressive the Chicago Cubs will be. They look like the most likely candidate, along with the Phillies, to be able to chase down the Dodgers for the National League's No. 1 seed. How these teams wheel and deal leading up to the deadline, though, could determine just how likely that is.