20. Cincinnati Reds
Nick Martinez
I’m not going to say it was worthwhile for the Cincinnati Reds to give Nick Martinez the $21.05 million qualifying offer last offseason, but Martinez has proven to be a valuable piece for them at times. He’s contributed both as a starting pitcher and a reliever, and he could definitely be a player they look to re-sign in a swingman type of role.
I just don’t see much opportunity for him to work as a starter in Cincinnati, raising the question of whether he’d even want to return. The Reds have Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, and Chase Burns all locked in through 2026, and Rhett Lowder should be healthy next season too.
When healthy, the Reds have six starters for five spots next season without Martinez. Again, I believe he can be a valuable swingman, but the Reds would probably be wise to spend their money on offense, and there’s a good chance Martinez will find a permanent rotation spot elsewhere.
-Rotman
19. St. Louis Cardinals
Sonny Gray
St. Louis would no doubt love to put down Nolan Arenado's name here, but given the continued decline, increasingly lengthy injury history and hefty contract, I'm not sure what contender is taking him on even if the Cardinals agree to pay down all or most of the money left on his deal.
There's still a good chance Arenado gets moved over the winter, but at this point I think it's more or less certain that Gray will. He might not be the pitcher he used to be, but the highs are still awfully high, and he comes with just one more guaranteed year left on his three-year, $75 million contract (with a team option for 2027 if the soon-to-be 36-year-old manages to age gracefully). There's an inexhaustible demand for starting pitching, and moving Gray now rather than losing him for nothing next offseason makes all the sense in the world for a Cardinals team that's about to embark on a major rebuild under Chaim Bloom.
-Landers
18. Arizona Diamondbacks
Zac Gallen
The D-backs are in a tricky spot, an erstwhile contender that has several holes to fill and will now be without the services of Corbin Burnes until at least late 2026. With Burnes out and Merrill Kelly already gone, the rotation is of particular concern – Ryne Nelson is legit, but after that, it’s pretty much nothing but question marks.
Which makes Gallen the biggest pivot point of Arizona’s offseason. They’re not finding a taker for Eduardo Rodriguez’s contract, and they’re not selling low on Brandon Pfaadt. The team will almost certainly tender Gallen the qualifying offer, especially given how well he’s pitched in the second half after a miserable start to 2025. But the righty will almost certainly turn it down as he seeks a multi-year deal in free agency. Will that deal come in Arizona? The guess here is no, both because of how many interested suitors he figures to have given his track record (and late-year resurgence) and how uncertain the future looks as the D-backs make a lot of noise about cutting payroll next season.
-Landers
17. Cleveland Guardians
Gabriel Arias
The Guardians will have some decisions to make about impending free agents like John Means and Lane Thomas, but we decided to go out on a limb and pick Arias.
While he won’t be eligible for free agency until 2030 and has all of the talent and tools that make scouts drool, Arias still hasn’t been able to put it all together for the Guardians this year. He entered the weekend slashing just .221/.278/.366 across 109 games and ranks in the first percentile in strikeout rate and whiff rate.
At this time last year, no one expected Andrés Giménez to be a member of the Toronto Blue Jays, yet here we are. And while that’s not an exact comparison (trading Giménez was about shedding his contract as much as anything else), the Guardians are always good for one offseason stunner when it comes to trades.
My bet is that Arias is a part of this year’s stunner.
-Henry Palattella, Away Back Gone
16. Tampa Bay Rays
Brandon Lowe
Maybe this is overly cynical, but I have a hard time seeing the Rays hanging on to a player making $11.5 million in his walk year. Tampa will probably pick up the club option on Lowe’s contract, but he’s an injury-prone player whose days as a viable second baseman are numbered and who’s coming off an excellent year at the plate.
All of the above suggests that now would be the time to try and sell high, rather than wait it out until next year’s trade deadline and run the risk of him getting hurt or underperforming. Lowe is still among the more underrated bats in the game, and if the Rays do make him available – while turning the infield over to Junior Caminero, Carson Williams, Taylor Walls and Yandy Diaz – they could fetch a solid return and keep stacking cost-controlled value for the future.
-Landers