10. Houston Astros
Framber Valdez
There's a good chance that all three of the Astros free-agents-to-be aren't back next season. After all, most fans have forgotten Brendan Rodgers was on the team, while Victor Caratini is more of a fifty-fifty proposition to return. The biggest impact name, Framber Valdez, has long been rumored to bolt once he hits the market, and recent events have probably sealed that fate.
Valdez was likely to be out of Houston's price range, and that was before they took on most of Carlos Correa's money, which will put an even greater strain on the budget over the next few years. However, Valdez "unintentionally" crossing up catcher César Salazar on Tuesday against the Yankees probably sealed his fate. It will be tough to lose an arm of Valdez's caliber, but for the sake of team chemistry (not the mention the bottom line), he's as good as gone.
-Stephen Parello, Climbing Tal’s Hill
9. New York Mets
Cedric Mullins
Turnover on the New York Mets roster is inevitable with David Stearns calling the shots. He’d DFA his grandparents if it meant taking a chance on a submarine pitcher on the waiver wire. The team will look a lot different between now and next season. One stone cold mortal lock to be gone is Cedric Mullins. He was always meant to be a rental. Nothing has changed.
While nothing is definitive with potential free agents Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz, there’s a strong chance each is back. Ryan Helsley? Fans would eagerly drive him to Newark Airport to get him out of town despite the much more accessible LaGuardia near Citi Field. A late turnaround and maybe even a stellar postseason could have the team considering a reunion. It happened with Ryne Stanek last year.
The Mets haven’t made any strong commitments to anyone in center field, but with Mullins seeing a reduced amount of playing time after a predictably below-average output to begin his Mets tenure, we can be assured he won’t be back. The team has Carson Benge waiting for his opportunity. Jett Williams should make a push as well. Expect some combination of Tyrone Taylor/Jose Siri/some other defensive wiz with an occasional surprise in his bat to begin the year in center field. If all else fails, Swiss Army Man Jeff McNeil can take on some of the duties.
-Tim Boyle, Rising Apple
8. Boston Red Sox
Alex Bregman
I could take the easy route here and go with someone like Dustin May, a pending free agent who hasn’t exactly covered himself in glory since coming to Boston at the trade deadline. And to be clear: Boston should do whatever is necessary to make sure Bregman spends the rest of his career at Fenway Park.
But all those full-throttle jokes exist for a reason – John Henry is rarely willing to spend more than his model tells him he should, and the Bregman market has the potential to get silly once he opts out of his current contract at the end of the year. Just think of all the potential suitors who figure to have money to burn and a potential hole in the infield, from the Yankees to the Tigers to the Cubs to even a wild card like the Angels. Bregman’s been too good this year not to break the bank; will Boston be willing to go that far?
-Landers
7. New York Yankees
Luke Weaver
As tempted as I am to just write “Devin Williams” 50 times in a row and call it a day, let’s instead focus on a different reliever. Weaver has been a godsend for this New York bullpen over the last couple of years, thriving in whatever role Aaron Boone asks of him on a daily basis – closer, setup man, multi-inning work, you name it.
The problem is that he’s been so good he might have priced himself out of what the Yankees are willing to pay to keep him. With Aroldis Chapman already locked up and Edwin Diaz and Andres Munoz likely staying put, Weaver will be at or near the top of a volatile relief market this winter. Maybe New York values him enough to beat back all comers, or maybe Weaver values staying with the team that helped oversee his transition from failed starter to star reliever. This is his chance to get paid, though, and that might lead him elsewhere.
-Landers
6. Detroit Tigers
Gleyber Torres
The Tigers signed Gleyber Torres to a one-year, $15 million prove-it deal last winter and boy has he rewarded them. Torres was the starting second baseman for the American League in the midsummer class. The former New York Yankees top prospect proved his past employer wrong in a big way, as his war or words with Brian Cashman after refusing to switch positions to third base now looks like a well-placed bet on himself.
Torres will search for a multiyear contract this winter, and it's unlikely to come with the Tigers unless he lowers his price tag. Working in Detroit's favor is that Torres has slowed the past few months, but Scott Harris is a big believer in the Tigers farm system, so he will not fret about letting a veteran like Gleyber walk if his asking price is too high.
-Powell