Fansided

MLB standings by playoff odds: Could SF Giants be sneaky sellers?

Just because San Francisco is above .500 does not mean they will buy at the deadline.
ByJohn Buhler|
Rafael Devers, San Francisco Giants
Rafael Devers, San Francisco Giants | Lachlan Cunningham/GettyImages

It is all about making the postseason. While playoff expansion has become quite prevalent in MLB over the last few decades, only 12 teams can make it in annually now. Six spots are reserved for each division winner, while the six other berths go to the three teams with the highest winning percentages of non-division winners in each league. Thus, a third-place finish no longer guarantees being out of it.

That being said, the postseason field is starting to come together before our very eyes. When it comes to obvious World Series contenders like the Detroit Tigers, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Toronto Blue Jays, all are at 95-percent chance or better of making the postseason. Teams who have struggled like the Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles and Chicago White Sox are less than one percent.

So what I wanted to do today is look at each team's playoff chances to see if they really are contenders or not. Some are obvious, while others could straddle the fence. There are also a few teams that have a puncher's chance of making it in, but the odds are not in their favor. Could a team like the San Francisco Giants actually be a secret seller at the deadline? That would be so wild, y'all!

According to Fangraphs, here is every MLB team's chances of making the playoffs as of July 27.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.

MLB standings by playoff odds

Let's start with the American League going east to west and then so on with the National League.

AL East

Here is how the American League East standings would be if based entirely on postseason chances.

  1. Toronto Blue Jays: 97.2 percent (63-43)
  2. New York Yankees: 87.3 percent (57-48)
  3. Boston Red Sox: 52.2 percent (57-50)
  4. Tampa Bay Rays: 15.8 percent (53-53)
  5. Baltimore Orioles: 0.6 percent (47-58)

As you can see, Toronto and the New York Yankees are overwhelming favorites to make the postseason. It could go either way with the Boston Red Sox. While I am probably the most surprised to see the .500 Tampa Bay Rays with unfavorable odds to make it in, Baltimore is really bringing up the rear this year. The AL East should be getting two teams into the postseason, maybe three potentially.

AL Central

Here is how the American League Central standings would look if based only on playoff chances.

  1. Detroit Tigers: 95.7 percent (61-46)
  2. Cleveland Guardians: 13.5 percent (52-53)
  3. Kansas City Royals: 12.8 percent (52-54)
  4. Minnesota Twins: 11.1 percent (50-55)
  5. Chicago White Sox: 0.0 percent (38-68)

The AL Central is cut and dry. The Tigers are an overwhelming favorite to win the division. What is interesting to me is that the Cleveland Guardians, Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins seem too far back of the rest of the AL Wild Card contenders to realistically compete for any of those three spots. As for the White Sox, they have played better of late, but they are a year way from being a year away.

AL West

Looking at the American League West, here is how the division stacks up in terms of playoff chances.

  1. Houston Astros: 87. 3 percent (60-46)
  2. Seattle Mariners: 72.9 percent (56-50)
  3. Texas Rangers: 51.1 percent (56-50)
  4. Los Angeles Angels: 2.6 percent (51-55)
  5. Athletics: 0.1 percent (46-62)

The Houston Astros are never going to go away; they are outpacing the Seattle Mariners by a considerable margin to win the AL West. Both teams are serious contenders to make the postseason, but let's not sleep on the Texas Rangers just yet. While the Los Angeles Angels and the Athletics are certainly going to be bringing up the rear, the AL West may be getting two or three of its teams in.

NL East

Now that we have a feel on the American League, let's turn our attention to how the NL East looks.

  1. New York Mets: 96.7 percent (62-44)
  2. Philadelphia Phillies: 95.9 percent (60-45)
  3. Miami Marlins: 0.9 percent (50-54)
  4. Atlanta Braves: 0. 3 percent (44-60)
  5. Washington Nationals: 0.0 percent (43-62)

While the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are playoff locks, the three other teams in the division are already playing for next year. The Washington Nationals may be rebuilding, but nobody saw the Atlanta Braves have themselves a season from hell quite like this. All the while, the other team in the division, the Miami Marlins, is playing surprisingly good baseball (especially by their recent standards) of late.

NL Central

Now looking at the NL Central, we still have so much to be decided within this incredible division.

  1. Chicago Cubs: 96.5 percent (62-43)
  2. Milwaukee Brewers: 93.2 percent (62-43)
  3. Cincinnati Reds: 20.6 percent (56-50)
  4. St. Louis Cardinals: 16.0 percent (54-53)
  5. Pittsburgh Pirates: 0.0 percent (44-62)

The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers still have so much left of the season to be had to decide the divisional race, starting with a huge series between the two beginning on Monday night. While the St. Louis Cardinals may be closer to sellers than to buyers, it will be interesting to see what direction the Cincinnati Reds go in. As for the Pittsburgh Pirates, they were always going to be obvious sellers, but it remains to be seen what pieces they would be moving off.

NL West

And here is how the National League West would look if playoff percentage chances mattered most.

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers: 99.1 percent (61-45)
  2. San Diego Padres: 50.6 percent (57-49)
  3. San Francisco Giants: 24.3 percent (54-52)
  4. Arizona Diamondbacks: 5.9 percent (51-55)
  5. Colorado Rockies: 0.0 percent (27-78)

As you can see, the Dodgers are essentially a lock to make the postseason now. A little bit off their pace is the San Diego Padres, a team where it could go either way. Not that far behind them are the Giants, a team who may be closer to a seller than a buyer. As for the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Colorado Rockies, they are so onto next year already. San Francisco is the likeliest surprise seller.

If I had to add two more teams to join the Giants in this, I would say they are Cincinnati and Minnesota.

More San Francisco Giants news and analysis:

Home/MLB Standings