MLB standings by run differential heading into the weekend

We're now entering the final weekend of August. Postseason hopefuls only have two more days to add players who are eligible for October, and every series looms large when it comes to how the playoff picture is going to ultimately shake out. The runway is just about gone; it's time to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

So, which teams are worth believing in entering the season's final month? One great way to answer that question is by looking at run differential — after all, there are few better indications of a team's quality than by looking at how much they've outscored their opponents by (or how much they've been outscored by) over the course of the regular season. Who looks ready to make a run at a World Series title? Let's break it down.

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MLB standings by run differential entering Friday, Aug. 29

AL East

Siri, show me just badly Devin Williams has handicapped the Yankees' chances of winning the division. New York has not just the best run differential in the American League but the second-best in all of baseball, behind only the Milwaukee Brewers. And yet, they enter play on Friday in third place in the East, four games behind the Blue Jays and a half-game behind the rival Red Sox.

It just goes to show: It doesn't matter how well you play against the league at large if you manage to consistently come up small in the biggest games on your schedule — and if your star closer turns a handful of late leads into crushing losses all by himself. Toronto's mark here, meanwhile, is in the eye of the beholder: Either you look at how they've overperformed their run differential and think they're a regression candidate waiting to happen, or you credit their contact-oriented lineup for consistently putting pressure on opposing pitching staffs and winning tight games.

AL Central

This is the least competitive division race in baseball right now, and as the above table shows, that has as much to do with how bad every other Central team has been as how good the Tigers are. Don't get it twisted: Detroit is a very good baseball team, deserving of their spot in the postseason. But only one other division has three teams in the red when it comes to run differential, and none have a second-place team with a run differential as low as Kansas City's +2.

AL West

Man, what could've been for the Texas Rangers. Their +80 run differential is fourth in the AL, and their expected win-loss record (78-57) should have them not just squarely in the playoff hunt but atop the division. Unfortunately, a shaky bullpen and an 18-25 record in one-run games (only the Chicago White Sox have been worse) leave them on the outside looking into the Wild Card chase right now. And with Corey Seager now on the IL after undergoing an appendectomy, things aren't looking great.

If you're looking for a playoff team to fade come October, the Astros would seem to fit that bill. The offense is struggling, the pitching staff has been beset by a torrent of injuries and who knows if/when Josh Hader will be back. A +19 run differential hardly seems like a World Series contender, and at least the Mariners are improving since making two big moves at the trade deadline.

NL East

While the AL Central is the worst in baseball this year, the NL East is the most dramatically bifurcated: The Phillies and Mets could very well make it to the NLCS or even the World Series this year, while the three other teams have been out of it for weeks if not months now.

If you want to believe in a quick rebound for the Braves in 2026, there is some reason for optimism here. The team hasn't been quite as bad as its record would suggest; get healthy, and get some more bullpen weapons, and the pieces are still here. (Of course, we said a lot of the same things this past winter, and we all know how that worked out.)

NL Central

The Central is one of just two divisions that feature two teams with run differentials greater than +100. The Brewers and Cubs have been duking it out here all summer, and we can't wait to see how this shakes out over the season's final weeks as Chicago looks to erase a 6.5-game deficit. Unfortunately, Milwaukee has been awfully tough, refusing to give any ground — while the Cubs' shaky bullpen is the biggest reason why they've slightly underperformed their expected win-loss record to date.

NL West

Don't look now, but the demise of the Dodgers appears to have been greatly exaggerated. Mookie Betts is back looking like something closer to his old self, while the pitching staff is getting healthy at just the right time. Things are hardly perfect in L.A., but they've won four in a row and should only get stronger when Tommy Edman returns to the lineup. Oh, and through it all, their +108 run differential is still the second-best in the NL.