MLB Trade Grades: Red Sox make up for offseason misses with Willson Contreras deal

After whiffing on Kyle Schwarber and then watching Pete Alonso go to the division rival Baltimore Orioles, fans of the Boston Red Sox started to wonder just how their team was going to add the big bat they very much needed this offseason. On Sunday night, they finally got their answer out of nowhere: According to ESPN's Jeff Passan, Boston has acquired first baseman Willson Contreras from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for righty Hunter Dobbins and two Minor League arms.

(St. Louis is also sending $8 million in cash to the Red Sox, which will be taken off the $36.5 million left on the final two years of Contreras' contract.)

Boston gets a needed offensive upgrade in Willson Contreras deal

In his age-33 season, Contreras slashed .257/.344/.447 (123 OPS+) with 20 homers and 80 RBI over 135 games for the Cardinals. He's cleared the 120 OPS+ mark in each of the last four seasons, remaining an impactful bat even as he's aged off of the catcher position.

The headliner in return here is no doubt Dobbins, who acquitted himself well when injuries thrust him into Boston's rotation last season: a 4.13 ERA (3.87 FIP) over 13 outings (11 starts) and 61 innings. But Fajardo is also a fast riser, a hard-throwing righty who just posted a 2.25 ERA across two levels of the lower Minors at 18 years old.

It's the second major trade between these two teams in a matter of weeks, on the heels of the Sonny Gray deal back before Thanksgiving. Cardinals lead exec Chaim Bloom wants to get this team younger and leaner as quickly as possible, and he's using his former team (and some of his former prospects) to do just that. But what does this mean for each team moving forward? And which side could emerge the winner here?

Red Sox trade grade: B

By the end of the 2025 season, Boston's offense was MIA. With Triston Casas and Marcelo Mayer on the shelf and Kristian Campbell in Triple-A, the Red Sox finished the year a middling 15th in homers — then went out and scored a grand total of six runs in their Wild Card loss to the New York Yankees. Re-signing Alex Bregman was a priority, but even getting that done would just put Boston back where they started, and where they started wasn't good enough.

The need was there for a big bopper, and with Schwarber and Alonso off the board, options were slim. There almost certainly wasn't enough money in the budget for both Bregman and Bo Bichette, and if not Bichette, who else? Ryan O'Hearn isn't moving the needle. Ketel Marte might not even be available, and even if he is, it's for an arm and a leg.

Contreras didn't come free, but he also didn't cost Boston more than it could afford to lose. He's still a very good hitter, one who should enjoy the friendly confines of Fenway Park, and he shows little sign of slowing down entering his age-34 season. There's risk here, to be sure — he's an aging righty first baseman, after all, and the Sox are still on the hook for $16 million a year or so in 2026 and 2027 — and more work needs to be done for this offense to be good enough to win a World Series. But Contreras helps in a way this team definitely needed, and Dobbins, while valuable, didn't have a clear role on next year's team.

Cardinals trade grade: B+

Much like the Gray deal before it, this is a trade that answers questions for both sides. Dobbins was a long shot to crack Boston's Opening Day rotation, stuck behind Gray, Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Payton Tolle, Connelly Early and potentially more in the pecking order. But for a Cardinals team that needs as much cost-controlled pitching as it can find, he's a meaningful get.

For starters, he's still just 26, and he won't hit free agency until after the 2031 season. And he showed reason to think he can stick in the back end of a big-league rotation in his first go-round this year: He doesn't blow you away with his stuff or miss a ton of bats, but he pumps strikes and generates lots of ground balls. He also boasts an above-average slider and curveball, giving him an offspeed pitch to attack both righties and lefties.

Bloom inherited a St. Louis organization very short on foundational pitching for the future. Dobbins isn't going to become an ace, but he's something to build on, someone who still figures to be in his prime and under contract when top prospects like Liam Doyle, Quinn Mathews and maybe even former Red Sox prospect Brandon Clarke make it to the Majors. Add in Fajardo, one of the faster risers of any pitchers in the Minors right now, and that's two meaningful pieces for two years of an aging and expensive player who doesn't play a premium position. That's good business, and the sort of move that represents good process as the Cardinals look to tear things down to the studs and begin again.