As the MLB season progresses through August, you can make the argument that not one divisional race is over yet. Milwaukee is distancing itself from Chicago, and Cleveland would need its hot streak to turn into a historically hot streak to overtake Detroit, but I don't feel fully comfortable labeling any divison race over with about 45 games left.
As it stands, these six teams are in the driver's seats of their respective divisions, even if some have no control over the steering wheel. Here's how each division leader stacks up against the other division leaders.
1. Milwaukee Brewers
There are valid reasons to be hesitant about the Brewers' chances at a World Series title; they don't hit many home runs or extra-base hits and they will rely a lot on unproven pitching in the postseason.
But the reasons to believe in them far outweigh any concerns. The Brewers get on base, steal more bases than almost anybody, have a deep and balanced lineup and have one of MLB's most underrated pitchers leading their staff in Freddy Peralta. They also just win games. At 73-44 they pretty comfortably have the best record in baseball and are riding a nine-game winning streak. I'm sure they're going to win every game they play, no matter the score or situation.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
Getting a closer... pretty helpful! Jhoan Duran has four saves in four opportunities with the Phillies, and it's hard to believe the team would have won all those games without him. He's single-handedly changed the complexion of this team, which is now potentially ready to run away with the NL East as the Mets continue to lose in cartoonish ways.
Kyle Schwarber is having a career year but it doesn't even feel like a lot of guys on the team are playing to their full capabilities, which could actually be a green flag; if this isn't even the full strength Phillies, then how good can they get?
3. Toronto Blue Jays
Don't let the Jays get hot. Wait, they're already hot.
The Blue Jays have a four-game lead over Boston in the AL East, and with just one series left against both Boston and New York, just need to handle their business and they could be en route to their first division title since 2015. After Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed his 14-year contract extension, some of the pressure of this season seemed to lift; this team is setup for the longterm (assuming it gets a Bichette deal done, too) and is balling out in the present.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
It might be silly to put the defending champions No. 4 on this list, but as of right now, on August 11th, the Dodgers look just... okay. They're 68-50 with a plus-85 run differential, so it's not like this team is suddenly the Rockies, but they were 55-32 on July 1st and have gone a very pedestrian 13-18 since then. Can they get hot again and quickly jump back up to No. 1 on this list? Of course! No team is going to look flawless for 162 games. But right now, in a very fluid power rankings, the Dodgers don't look like the tank they were during last year's run.
5. Detroit Tigers
Eventually, the AL Central... becomes the AL Central. Okay, that's probably a little harsh because the Tigers are still 68-51 and have proven plenty of times they're not to be taken lightly. But like the Dodgers, the middle part of the season was a bit slow for A.J. Hinch's team. They'll still make their second straight playoff appearance (barring a complete catastrophe) and it wouldn't be a shock at all to see them represent the AL in the World Series... but that hinges on the team recapturing the dominance it showed from April to June, and not the level they've played at since.
6. Houston Astros
The Astros seem to feed off the spite the rest of the league has for them. The louder you boo them, the more powerful they get. It makes then that Houston has cooled off from mid-July to mid-August... crowds aren't quite as big, there isn't as much hate to go around.
Houston is 66-52 on the season and barely holding onto first place in the AL West as the surging Seattle Mariners. They're getting healthier (it would have been near-impossible to get less healthy) and Christian Javier is the latest player to make his return, which he'll do to open the series against the Red Sox.
Adding Carlos Correa has worked wonders and this team can't be counted out in the Fall time. But right now, they look more like a solid team than a World Series contender.