MLB playoff picture tiebreakers: How every race could be decided

You know we're in an age of parity in Major League Baseball when the Brewers have the best record in the game, and barring a 9-3 finish, they still won't reach 100 wins. The Phillies would have to go 9-1 to hit the century mark, while the Blue Jays would need to run the table in their final 12 games.

The last time zero teams won 100 games in a season was 2014, but fans shouldn't look at this as a bad thing. Nobody likes a September where every race is decided, but thankfully, there is still much in doubt with just two weeks to go in the regular season.

The Brewers do know that they'll be in the playoffs, even if they lose out the rest of the way. They're still not clear of the Cubs for the NL Central crown, though, as they're just five games up. The Phillies are the only team that's actually clinched their division, by virtue of the Mets' second-half collapse as much or more than their own great play.

Baseball did away with its method of breaking after the 2021 season. That means that no longer will teams meet for a 163rd, winner-take-all game for a trip to the postseason. If two or more teams tie, then it becomes a simple math game. Here's MLB's primer on all the intricacies of the tiebreaker scenarios, but to break it down simply, a tie between two teams will first be determined by their head-to-head record against each other. If that doesn't break it, their records against divisional opponents will be the determining factor, and yes, that even applies to Wild Card teams that play in different divisions. That will usually be enough to produce a winner, but there are further tiebreakers in place if needed.

If more than two teams tie for the same spot, things get a bit more complicated, but the page above has it laid out in a way that makes sense, even for a simple Mets fan such as myself.

There are 12 spots in baseball's postseason, and 17 teams with at least a five percent chance of claiming one. Let's break down the tiebreaker scenarios to see where everyone stands.

American League division races

The Blue Jays are currently looking good in the AL East, as they have a five-game lead over the Yankees and a six-game lead over the Red Sox. If they somehow crater out and one of their pursuers gets hot, they can take comfort in the fact that they hold the tiebreaker over both. Toronto won the season series with the Yankees 8-5, and they hold a 7-3 lead over the Red Sox with three games left to be played between them. By virtue of their superior record over both longtime rivals, the Blue Jays would also win in the unlikely scenario that a three-team tie occurs. The Red Sox beat the Yankees in nine out of 13 meetings this year, making them No. 2 in the AL East tiebreaker pecking order. That would also give them the edge over the Yankees in the Wild Card race, too.

The Tigers are in great shape to win the AL Central for the first time in 11 years. They're 6.5 up on the Guardians, but there's still a bit of drama because these teams will square off six times in the next nine days, beginning tonight in Detroit. The Guardians need to win at least five of those games to have any shot, but if they do, they'd have the tiebreaker since the Tigers are only up 4-3 on the year as of now.

Out West, it's still anyone's game. OK, not the A's or Angels, but that goes without saying. The Mariners currently lead the Astros by a half-game (one in the loss column), and the Rangers are lurking just three games behind Houston. The Mariners and Astros are tied 5-5 this year, so whoever can take two of three from their upcoming series in Houston this weekend will get the tiebreak edge. Seattle pulverized the Rangers 10-3, so they'd also have the tiebreaker over them, and they'd win a three-way tie, too. The Rangers lead the Astros 6-5 as of now, meaning Houston would have to win tonight and tomorrow to steal the tiebreaker away.

One other important thing to note is that the Blue Jays would get the top seed in the AL if they finish tied with the Tigers.

National League division races

As mentioned above, the Phillies have already clinched in the NL East. Had the race been closer, the Mets would have won the tiebreaker since they've won seven times head-to-head compared to six for Philly.

Just like the NL East, the second-place Cubs won seven out of 13 from the first-place Brewers, meaning they'd have win the division if they can make up five games in the last 12.

There are technically four teams still alive in the NL West, but the Diamondbacks' and Giants' only real hope is the Wild Card since they're 8.5 and 9 back from the Dodgers, respectively. That leaves the Padres as the only viable threat to keep L.A. from winning its 11th NL West crown in 12 years. San Diego is two back, but Mike Shildt's team will need to make up three games since they're only 4-9 against the Dodgers this year.

The Brewers would be the 1-seed if they tie with the Phillies.

Wild Card scenarios

Let's assume that the Blue Jays and Tigers don't suffer historic collapses to give away their divisions. That leaves the Yankees, Red Sox, Guardians and whichever two of the Mariners-Astros-Rangers trio that don't win the West to fight it out for three Wild Card spots. Here are the standings as of Tuesday afternoon, along with each each team's clinched tiebreaker wins:

If the Mariners all out of first, they would win tiebreakers against the Rangers and Guardians and lose to the Yankees. Their tiebreaker with the Red Sox and Astros is still up in the air. The others tiebreakers still to be determined are the Astros versus the Yankees and Rangers, plus the Rangers versus the Guardians.

Here's how the National League Wild Card race looks:

Amazingly, the NL tiebreakers are almost all going to come down to the final two weeks. The Cubs and Padres split their season series, so if they tie, it would come down to intradivision record. The Padres will win the tiebreaker against the Mets as long as they don't get swept in their series that begins tonight.

Realistically, there are four teams fighting for one spot. Despite their recent skid, the Mets are in the driver's seat. They have the tiebreaker against the Giants but not the Reds, and though it's not quite over yet, it looks like the Diamondbacks would get the edge based on intradivisional record if they tie.

The D-Backs need to take one of two from the Giants to clinch that tiebreaker. The Reds and Giants split 3-3 this year, and they're both currently five games under .500 in their division, meaning their tiebreaker could come down to the last day of the season.