The most surprising MLB stats from breakout candidates to disappointments

The first two months of the MLB season have brought several surprises in the standings. For example, who thought teams like the Washington Nationals and Chicago White Sox would be anywhere near, let alone above the .500 mark at this point? On the flip side, who expected the New York Mets to be as bad as they've been?

The same can be said about players. There are several surprising breakouts worth monitoring and slumps worth panicking about.

Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals fans were all but ready to give up on Jordan Walker entering the year, and for good reason. He had a .680 OPS in parts of three big-league seasons entering the 2026 campaign, and was worth a combined -2.6 bWAR. It was fair to give him a chance in what was expected to be a rebuilding year, but expectations were low for a guy who looked like a major bust.

All Walker has done this year, though, is prove his doubters wrong, for a Cardinals team that has also wildly exceeded expectations. The 24-year-old enters Saturday's action slashing .296/.365/.568 with 15 home runs and 42 RBI. He has been the MVP of the resurgent Cardinals, and one of the best players in the National League.

Walker had just 27 home runs in his first 279 career games, and he's hit 15 in 54 games this year. It's been a remarkable turnaround for Walker, who has gone from an afterthought to a Cardinals cornerstone.

Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs

While it's been very cool seeing a struggling youngster break out, it's been jarring watching a consistent mid-rotation arm struggle mightily. Jameson Taillon has been nothing but consistent, posting a 3.45 ERA in his last two seasons and a sub-4.00 ERA on an average of over 150 innings annually ahead of the 2026 campaign. He has never been an ace, but Taillon has been a rock for a while.

This season, though, he's been one of the worst pitchers in the sport, posting a 5.37 ERA in 60.1 innings for a Chicago Cubs team in dire need of starting pitching. The driving force behind his struggles is his inability to keep the ball in the yard. Taillon has always given up some home runs, but this season has been eye-opening.

Taillon has allowed a MLB-leading 19 home runs in just 60.1 innings of work, four more than any other pitcher. That number, compared to the home runs he's allowed in the previous two seasons, is nothing short of insane, and he's going to have to improve if he wants to remain in Chicago's rotation.

Dominant rookies

Being a MLB rookie is hard. More often than not, even the top prospects need at least some time to adjust to the big-league level, and understandably so. That has not been the case this season, though.

This list of thriving rookies does not even include the likes of Konnor Griffin, Chase DeLauter, Samuel Basallo and Trey Yesavage. Murakami (even with his injury) and Wetherholt look like the favorites to win the Rookie of the Year award in their respective leagues, but those winners could go in several directions. It'll be interesting to see who winds up winning.

Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves

If there's one thing Atlanta Braves fans know about Michael Harris II, it's that he's a slow starter and a fast finisher. He might be frustrating to watch in April and May, but he'll turn it on in the second half. This season, though, is looking like an exception.

Harris has consistently been one of the league's worst performers in the first two months of the season, only to play at an All-Star level when the weather warms up. This season, though, Harris has been performing at a star level from the jump, raising the question of just how good he can be.

Harris has been one of the best players on an Atlanta Braves team that has been dominant thus far. The outfielder performing like this in October would make them even harder to beat.

NL Cy Young race

Entering the year, it felt as if the NL Cy Young award was Paul Skenes' award to lose, really as long as he remained with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Well, while Skenes has had a good year outside of a couple of clunkers, he's more of an afterthought in the NL Cy Young race thus far because of how well others are pitching.

This list does not even include the likes of Bryce Elder, Braxton Ashcraft, Michael King or Skenes. Cristopher Sanchez is probably the favorite as of this moment, thanks largely to a historically dominant month of May, but Jacob Misiorowski striking out the world and Mason Miller getting off to one of the most dominant starts a reliever has ever had makes it far from a given that Sanchez will pull it off.

This has the potential to be one of the closest and most memorable Cy Young races in recent memory.

Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres

Once upon a time, Fernando Tatis Jr. was one of the most prolific power hitters in the sport. He has hit as many as 42 home runs in a single season, and had never gone a full season in which he had not hit at least 20 home runs (excluding the shortened 2020 season). You wouldn't know that, though, based on this season, as Tatis had gone 56 games and 238 plate appearances before finally going yard on Saturday.

Tatis entered the day as one of five qualified hitters to not hit a single home run. He is now in a group of nine qualified hitters to hit fewer than two home runs. Perhaps with the monkey off his back, Tatis can find a way to hit home runs in bunches. Barring that, though, his season will continue to look like one of the biggest and most unexpected disappointments in the league.

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