It has been a very strange MLB season. The Dodgers had all the makings of a juggernaut in the spring, and although they still look likely to win the NL West, it was much more of a fight than anticipated. The Yankees and Mets got off to fast starts, but both suffered through lengthy fallow periods, driving their respective fanbases crazy in the process. In short, there's been no dominant team, no squad that has gone wire-to-wire to establish themselves as a huge favorite in October.
There's a very high probability that no team will reach 100 wins this year, something that hasn't happened since 2014. The Phillies have a shot, but they'd need to be perfect in their final nine games. The only one with a realistic chance is, shockingly, the Brewers.
Milwaukee was expected to take a step back this season, and for the first two months at least, those projections looked accurate as they hovered just above .500. They then got scorching hot as the summer did too, though, turning in multiple double-digit win streaks between early July and mid-August. They'll need to win seven of their final 10 to reach 100 wins.
As good as they've been, the Brewers are nobody's idea of a juggernaut, and things are just as muddy in the American League, where the difference between the current 1-seed Blue Jays and the first team on the outside looking in on the Wild Card, the Guardians, is just 7.5 games.
The last time baseball fans saw parity like this, the playoffs were completely unpredictable, as the 5-seed Giants ended up beating the 4-seed Royals in a classic World Series that went seven games. That was only the second time two Wild Cards met in the Fall Classic, and it sure feels like we're headed for something similarly kooky this year.
What would the 2025 MLB playoffs look like if history repeats itself?
There's still so much to be determined as far as playoff seeding and even who gets in at all, so we're going to need to do some projecting for the purposes of this exercise. Here's how I see the playoff bracket shaking out:
American League | National League |
|---|---|
1. Blue Jays | 1. Brewers |
2. Tigers | 2. Phillies |
3. Astros | 3. Dodgers |
4. Yankees | 4. Cubs |
5. Mariners | 5. Padres |
6. Red Sox | 6. Mets |
If this is how everything lands, we'll have Astros vs. Red Sox and Yankees vs. Mariners in the AL, and Dodgers-Mets and Cubs-Padres in the NL. What's the most 2014 way this could go?
I started with the 2014 World Series matchup, and everything fell into place. That year, the Royals were a unique team. They struck out 119 times fewer than the next closest club, and with Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera and Greg Holland, they had one of the league's very best bullpens.
Sounds just like this year's San Diego Padres, no? Mike Shildt's team has struck out the third-fewest times in the league (the Royals, oddly enough, are once again the best in that category). They also have a dominant pen, one that leads the majors in ERA. Mason Miller came over from the A's in a blockbuster trade deadline deal, and the young flamethrower hasn't even been their closer! That's not unlike Wade Davis, who eventually inherited the role for the Royals.
Robert Suarez is second in the league in saves, but he's set up by waves of arms, including Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada and David Morgan. When the Padres get a lead, they know how to close it out, just as that Royals team did. Incidentally, Luis Arraez and his ultra-contact swing is the most 2014 Royals player in the league today.
Obviously the Royals are an American League team and the Padres are a National League team, but switching leagues works out pretty nicely when it comes to finding this year's version of the 2014 Giants, too.
Those Giants were best remembered for two players: catcher Buster Posey and ace lefty Madison Bumgarner, who put together one of the most legendary postseason pitching runs of all-time. Bumgarner had a miniscule 1.03 ERA over seven playoff starts, and he started and won Games 1 and 5 of the World Series before closing the Royals out with five scoreless innings in relief, on two days' rest, in Game 7.
There are two candidates in the American League that I really like to be this year's Giants. First are the Tigers, with the most obvious parallel being Tarik Skubal as the best lefty in the game. Skubal goes deep into games, he's second in the league in strikeouts, and he'd run away with the voting if fans were asked which pitcher is most likely to put a team on his back and carry them to a World Series title.
Detroit also has a talented young catcher in Dillon Dingler, a guy who could absolutely evolve into the second coming of Posey. This is Dingler's first full season in the big leagues, and he leads all Tigers position players in WAR. Posey did the same for the 2014 Giants, though by that time he was in his fifth year and already had two rings and an MVP on his resume.
Then there are the Mariners, who have been powered by starting pitching and the record-setting season of catcher Cal Raleigh. The Big Dumper is a very different player than Posey, but it's not often that a team's best player is their catcher, so the similarity is notable. The Mariners don't really have one ace on their staff, though — it's more of a group effort, as Brian Woo, Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert are all really good. When it comes down to it though, Woo is the top guy.
Like Bumgarner, Woo is near the league lead in average innings per start, and the rest of his stats are pretty comparable, too.
Bumgarner (2014) | Woo (2025) |
|---|---|
2.98 ERA | 3.02 ERA |
1.03 WHIP | .94 WHIP |
15 wins | 14 wins |
203 strikeouts | 191 strikeouts |
Both the Mariners and Tigers would be great choices as our 2014 Giants parallel. Even though the Tigers are a division winner and not a Wild Card, though, I have to go with them. Skubal is the spiritual successor to Bumgarner, and though many fans don't yet know Dingler's name, he really is one of the most promising young players in the game. He's a bit more Posey circa 2010, but that's good enough for me.
This postseason is going to be wide open. If it goes the way it did in 2014, we'll see the Mariners beat the Yankees and Blue Jays before falling to the Tigers in the ALCS after Detroit takes out the Astros. In the National League, the Dodgers are still seen as the favorites, so naturally they'll lose to the Mets, who will then also beat the Brewers, because the 1-seed needs to go down. The Padres will go into Wrigley Field to eliminate the Cubs, then end the NL East's hopes by beating the Phillies and Mets in succession. In the World Series, the Tigers will win in 7, with Skubal getting three wins and the World Series MVP.
Buckle up baseball fans, it's going to be a wild October.