Muddled MLB standings could produce the weakest trade deadline in recent memory

If you took a snapshot of the MLB standings, blocked out everyone’s record and, without knowing anything about how each team’s season had gone, just looked at how many games back everyone was from the playoffs, you’d think this was one of the most exciting regular seasons in MLB history. That might end up being the case, but it also might make for a pretty dry trade deadline.

Even underperforming teams still have a chance to make the postseason

Exhibit A: the Boston Red Sox — my hometown team, having a season so bleak you’d think they were about to move the team to Vermont. But if you go with the above process of putting on very specific blinders, you’ll find that the Red Sox are still, despite everything, just three games back of the final Wild Card spot. Three games! If they were three games back in early September, we’d all talk about how “we have a chance.” The Houston Astros (who I guess can be Exhibit B, but it’s all really one exhibit) are only 2.5 back despite having the board-certified season from Tartarus. 

The American League has eight teams within five games of each other in the Wild Card hunt. Meanwhile, in the National League, we have seven teams within three games of each other. It’s also the end of May, meaning that we’re about a third of the way through the season — with two more months until the trade deadline separates pretending contenders from contending pretenders. How are we going to figure out who is who? 

Take the Red Sox and Astros, two teams which, in a normal season, would be taking calls on everyone from Willson Contreras to Jarren Duran to Christian Walker and even Jeremy Peña. But it’s simply too close right now to give up, and both teams know they are probably better than their record. There are a ton of teams in both leagues that can say that, like the Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies and even the slightly more-in-trouble New York Mets and San Francisco Giants. But if I’m running any of these teams right now, I’m not itching to pull the plug. 

It will be difficult to differentiate between contenders and pretenders come deadline day

It’s an interesting game of musical chairs. Because every team can justify thinking they can turn things around, whoever actually does will do so at the expense of all the other prospective turn-arounders. The Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays are not all going to course correct since they play each other a billion times. And even if fewer wires cross between, say, the Cubs and Padres, a rising tide will inherently not lift all boats given a limited total number of wins and playoff spots. We have a boat quota. A boat-a, if you will. 

Then there’s group two, the contending pretenders. The St. Louis Cardinals are the main example, but there are also “contenders” for the AL Wild Card like the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins; they have losing records, sure, but they also currently occupy or tie for a playoff spot.

How could any of these teams going to get organized by the time the trade deadline sneaks up on everyone? Teams like the Cardinals and the Twins have long-term rebuilds to manage, while the Red Sox and Astros need to figure out if a retooling is in order or if this can actually be salvaged. While it’s possible everyone gets into their industry-approved seats by August, it seems equally possible that everyone is just as confused as they are now. So what will happen at the trade deadline in that case? You guessed it: nothing.

You don’t make a bold move unless you’re sure where you stand. With how pressurized the job of an MLB general manager is, saying “screw it” and rolling the dice is never conducive to keeping your job. If this keeps up, it could be a shockingly boring trade deadline.

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