Hovering around .500 and on the fringes of Wild Card contention in the National League standings, the St. Louis Cardinals are in a precarious position. The July 31 trade deadline is upon them and marks a critical juncture in their 2025 campaign. Do they try to make a postseason push or wave the white flag with an eye towards the future?
Whether the Cardinals like it or not, their decision may have been made for them, courtesy of a pair of NL Central rivals. The Cincinnati Reds acquired third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes from the cellar-dwelling Pittsburgh Pirates in a shocking divisional swap. This move could force St. Louis' hand to sell, and more specifically, it conceivably spells the end of Nolan Arenado's with the franchise.
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Reds-Pirates Ke'Bryan Hayes trade leaves Cardinals no choice but to move Nolan Arenado
Another hot corner option off the market should make teams more desperate, driving up the demand for Arenado's services. Not everyone is equipped with the assets necessary to pry All-Star Eugenio Suárez from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Moreover, Hayes and Ryan McMahon are officially off the board, meaning the Cardinals have arguably the next-best option available.
With the Reds adding talent and already ahead of St. Louis in the postseason race, the Cards have reasons to offload veterans like Arenado. Several contenders need third-base help, as Mark Feinsand of MLB.com notes in recent reporting of "renewed" interest in the eight-time All-Star. Now presents an opportunity for St. Louis to recoup maximum value.
Clubs like the Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, Milwaukee Brewers, Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies have eyed Suárez "to varying degrees," according to Feinsand. All of them ostensibly want to bolster their third base situation. Arenado doesn't offer the upgrade Arizona's slugger would as a hitter but is light years ahead as a defender and signed through 2027.
The combination of contract control and presumably not needing to give up a haul to land Arenado make him a fine, if not spectacular consolation prize. However, he's still one of the highest-paid players at his position and has a full no-trade clause, which complicates matters for suitors and the Cardinals. But Hayes getting sent to the Reds may positively impact how other front offices view St. Louis' bargaining chip.
Arenado's slashing .235/.295/.367 with 10 home runs, 43 RBIs and a below-average .662 OPS across 357 at-bats entering play on July 30. His two runs prevented and Outs Above Average (OAA) are tied for third and fourth in the Majors among third baseman, respectively.