Ever since superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado has been with the St. Louis Cardinals, the team has somewhat underachieved. Given his age, salary and the status of the Cardinals' organization, it seemed inevitable that Arenado would be playing elsewhere in 2025.
St. Louis actively shopped Arenado this past offseason, but the only takers they had were the Houston Astros. But just when a deal was in place, Arenado exercised his full no-trade clause to nix it, throwing the rest of his team's offseason into chaos. St. Louis ended up stuck with the eight-time All-Star, and after a surprisingly hot start to the season that has them now just 2.5 games back of the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central, that would seem to have been the best-case scenario for the Redbirds.
Or is it? With the trade deadline just weeks away, speculation has once again ramped up about Arenado's future in St. Louis. He did his best to put all that speculation to bed after Tuesday night's stirring win over Chicago. But while the vibes are great right now at Busch Stadium, the Cardinals could wind up regretting how the past few months have played out when all is said and done.
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Nolan Arenado shuts down trade talks
Just like no one expected, the St. Louis Cardinals are 44-36 after taking the first two games of their rivalry showdown with the Cubs and currently in possession of an NL Wild Card spot. And that has Arenado believing in this team; all the third baseman wanted was a place to compete for a World Series, and now that he's found it, he sounds like a man who's not going anywhere.
After Tuesday's win, Arenado was transparent about his expectations prior to the start of the season but made clear just how much this hot start has meant to him. John Denton of MLB.com shared Arenado's post-game thoughts.
"I didn't expect us to be winning like this, at this point," Arenado said.
"I expected us to play hard, I thought we were going to be good defensively and I thought our pitching would be fine. I mean I like playing baseball like this, where games matter. Individually, I've accomplished some things in this game and I want to accomplish something team-oriented and special and win a World Series. Games like this are easy to wake up for. This is the most excited I've come to the ballpark for in about two years."
Again, Arenado has always just wanted to play October baseball; that was the reason he forced his way from the Colorado Rockies to St. Louis in the first place, after all. Now that he's finally gotten his wish, why would he entertain the idea of going elsewhere, even if it were what John Mozeliak decided was in the Cardinals' best interest? Does that sound like a player who wants to waive his no-trade clause?
It is hard to imagine seeing Arenado being moved at the deadline if St. Louis stays competitive. And at this point, there is no reason to believe they will not be playing baseball in October. There comes a time when results stop being viewed as a coincidence, and we are there with the Cardinals. All of which is great for fans who are hungry for a winner after two consecutive lackluster seasons. But is it great for St. Louis moving forward?
Keeping Nolan Arenado could come back to haunt the Cardinals
This might not be the most convenient time to point this out, given that the Cardinals have just taken two in a row from the division-leading Cubs. But it's hard to look at this team and think that they can really give Chicago, the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Philadelphia Phillies and the rest of the NL's heavyweights a serious push come the postseason. The pitching has finally started to come back to Earth a bit, and while the offense has picked up some of that slack, this team feels closer to middle of the pack than top of the league.
Which presents Mozeliak with a dilemma at the deadline. It would be irresponsible to mortgage this team's future in the name of a quixotic run at a championship. But fans likely wouldn't take kindly to selling given the team's current position in the standings, and one of the Cardinals' biggest trade chips just more or less announced he's not going anywhere.
If you gave St. Louis' front office some truth serum, they'd probably tell you that they'd love to find someone to take on at least a majority of the money left on Arenado's contract. The Cardinals have plenty of infield depth behind him, and at this point in his career he's a solid regular who's being paid like a superstar. Freeing up some money while freeing up playing time for the likes of Thomas Saggese, the suddenly-scorching Nolan Gorman and incoming top prospect JJ Wetherholt, while getting at least a prospect or two in return, would position St. Louis nicely for 2026. But sometimes a pleasant surprise winds up boxing you into a corner.