Game 162 has come and gone, and while the calendar has yet to officially flip to October, postseason baseball is almost upon us. Wild Card series in both the NL and AL get underway on Tuesday afternoon, which means that teams have precious little time to get their ducks in a row and figure out who will and won't be making the roster. (As a reminder, rosters need to be trimmed back down to 26 players at the beginning of each series, with a maximum of 13 pitchers.)
While most of those decisions are obvious — shockingly, the Dodgers will be including Shohei Ohtani — things get hairy when deciding spots 25 and 26, and those choices can wind up having an outsized impact in the hothouse of a playoff game. So what should each team be focused on as they make their final calls? And just as importantly, what pitfalls do they need to avoid? Here's some guidance for all eight teams that will be participating in the Wild Card round.
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American League
Cleveland Guardians: Falling for Jhonkensy Noel's fool's gold
Cleveland has had its choices here winnowed down considerably due to injury, with all of Lane Thomas, Nolan Jones, Will Brennan and now David Fry on the IL and unavailable for their Wild Card rematch with the Detroit Tigers. But Fry's scary injury earlier this week raises the need for one more righty bat to hit against left-handed pitching, and the Guardians would do well to ignore the guy who was one of the heroes of last year's postseason run.
Yes, Noel can hit the ball a long way, and yes, Big Christmas is an S-tier nickname. But he's been downright awful at the plate this season, with terrible discipline and sky-high K rates, and Johnathan Rodríguez, while less experienced, is simply the better option right now. Noel's homer over the weekend against Texas can't excuse a .480 OPS this year.
New York Yankees: Including Austin Slater
If the Yankees choose to include Slater on their Wild Card roster, it would really be for just one reason: to face Boston Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet in Game 1 on Tuesday night. But is that really worth it? Not only has Slater struggled both against Crochet specifically and also at the plate generally since coming over from the Chicago White Sox ahead of the trade deadline, but his inclusion in the lineup means that Trent Grisham — a worse hitter against lefties but a much better all-around player — will ride the bench for at least the first six or seven innings of a pivotal game. And New York still has Amed Rosario and Jose Caballero as lefty-mashing utility players if they're worried about playing the platoon game.
Boston Red Sox: Picking the wrong rookie lefty
Boston is already a lock to carry three lefties in the bullpen in Aroldis Chapman, Justin Wilson and Steven Matz, and Brennan Bernardino looms as a possibility as well as he recovers from a lat strain. That doesn't leave a ton of room for the team's two prized young southpaws, Payton Tolle and Connelly Early.
It's probably not optimal roster construction to carry them both, and the choice here should be obvious: Tolle's future remains exceedingly bright, but he's been up-and-down in the Majors so far, while Early has been lights out since getting the call to Boston. His swing-and-miss stuff (36.7% strikeout rate) and his ability to face righties and lefties makes him a real weapon, and he deserves a spot on this roster.
Detroit Tigers: Not bringing enough lefty relievers
Detroit knows all too well the challenge that this pesky Guardians team represents. It also knows that Cleveland's group of position players will feature no fewer than seven left-handed hitters. The Tigers went into last week's series at Progressive Field ill-prepared, with lefty specialist Bailey Horn ineligible for the roster because of option shenanigans. He's eligible now, though, and he better be included this time around — at a minimum.
National League
Los Angeles Dodgers: Giving up on Michael Conforto
That sound you hear is the entire metro Los Angeles area preparing to storm my apartment building in protest. But hear me out: Keeping Conforto on this roster does actually make sense from a baseball perspective.
The only other realistic option is Alex Call, who would serve only as a specialist against lefty pitching. But the Dodgers already have one of those in Kiké Hernández, who is also both more experienced and brings more defensive versatility. Call doesn't figure to have much of a role in this Wild Card series, and Conforto has actually been swinging the bat pretty well of late even if bad batted-ball luck is masking most of it. Roberts' faith in him all year has had fans tearing their hair out, but they should go back to the well one more time.
Chicago Cubs: Using Moises Ballesteros as a catcher
Ballesteros has been a revelation since getting a second crack at the Majors in the wake of Kyle Tucker's injury earlier this month, posting a .999 OPS while showcasing the tremendous contact skills that made him one of the team's most highly regarded prospects. But there's a reason nearly all of those at-bats have come as a DH: Ballesteros simply isn't good enough defensively behind the plate right now, especially not in a hugely important postseason series.
Sure, with Tucker back and Seiya Suzuki locked in as the DH, it's tempting to use Ballesteros as a catcher to give him more opportunities. But that could backfire tremendously, and also makes it trickier for Craig Counsell to use him as a pinch-hitter if he's one of just two catchers on the roster.
San Diego Padres: Carrying 13 pitchers (and five starters)
Nick Pivetta will get the ball in Game 1 for San Diego, and whichever of the team's four remaining starters don't go in Games 2 and (if necessary) 3 figure to shift to the bullpen. Considering that both Michael King and Randy Vasquez already have considerable experience in that role, it obviates the need to go too heavy on bullpen arms when building the 26-man roster, especially given how hard the team will certainly lean on the big four of Mason Miller, Robert Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon.
Which is for the best, because this position player group could use all the help it can get with Ramon Laureano on the shelf. In particular, this bench is desperately lacking in the sort of speed that makes all the difference as a pinch-runner late in games. Utility infielder Mason McCoy isn't much with the bat and certainly won't be seeing meaningful playing time, but he's much faster than anyone else on the Padres' active roster. Why not carry him instead of a middling option like Yuki Matsui?
Cincinnati Reds: Not bringing an extra lefty
As things stand right now, Brent Suter is pretty much the only meaningful lefty in the Cincinnati bullpen. That's ... less than ideal as you get set to begin a series against a Dodgers team featuring the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy. Neither Reiver Sanmartin nor Sam Moll inspire all that much confidence, but it's hard to imagine the Reds surviving in L.A. without better options against some oef the best left-handed hitters in the sport.