With less than three weeks to go in the 2025 regular season, you can practically feel October in the air. For the most part, we know which teams will be taking part in the postseason this year (you know, unless the Seattle Mariners or New York Mets decide they don't feel like pulling out of their current tailspins). But that doesn't mean there's nothing to be decided between now and playoff time.
Each NL and AL contender is busy gathering information, trying to figure out which players do and don't deserve a spot on the 26-man postseason roster. In a lot of cases, the decision is easy; Shohei Ohtani will be taking part, more at 11. But there are also plenty of players in limbo right now, whose performance over the next few weeks can make or break their hopes of playing October baseball. Here's one player from each of the 12 current playoff teams that we don't think will make the cut.
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.
Toronto Blue Jays: Eric Lauer
This one just comes down to a numbers game. Something has to give in Toronto's rotation: The addition of Shane Bieber alongside Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios and Max Scherzer will leave somebody out in the cold come October. And it's hard not to think that someone might be Lauer, whom the team demoted once Bieber broke in late last month.
It doesn't help that the cracks have started to show for the veteran lefty in recent weeks, with an ugly 5.57 ERA since the start of August. Maybe Toronto will want to keep him around in a long relief role, but they have multiple lefties to keep in the 'pen as is, and Berrios or Scherzer figure to be above him the pecking order.
Detroit Tigers: Sawyer Gipson-Long
The acquisition of Charlie Morton might have been the death knell for Gipson-Long's postseason hopes, especially if he keeps throwing the ball like he did in a nightmare start against the New York Mets last week. Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty are locked into starting spots come October, and even if Detroit needs a fourth, Gipson-Long doesn't seem like a very likely candidate.
Knowing AJ Hinch's penchant for pitching chaos, though, it's likely that they'd prefer to patch together a Game 4 out of the bullpen if they have to. And Gipson-Long, a sinkerballer without great velocity, profiles much better at the back of a rotation than he does in relief.
Houston Astros: Lance McCullers Jr.
It might be time to call this experiment once and for all. After once again failing to be effective (or healthy) as a starter, the Astros decided to pivot McCullers to a bulk relief role. The results have been ... not what you want: In two outings out of the bullpen, he's given up four runs over two innings of work.
At this point, it's tough to see how Houston could possibly trust the righty enough to turn to him come playoff time. Which is a shame, because once upon a time he was one of the most dynamic young postseason performers in the sport.
New York Yankees: Paul Blackburn
We're sure Yankees fans would love to see Anthony Volpe or Devin Williams listed here, but that simply isn't realistic; if New York were going to ditch either of them in October, they would've done so by now (and Williams has been better lately, for what it's worth). Instead, we'll turn to the back of the bullpen, where it seems as though Blackburn might be the odd man out. That goes doubly true if the team's game of musical chairs in the rotation bumps someone like Luis Gil or Cam Schlittler out of a starting job, as both hard-throwing righties could be valuable in relief.
Boston Red Sox: Roman Anthony
Obviously, Boston would love nothing more than to have a healthy Anthony at the heart of its order come October. But it's just awfully hard to imagine him being ready to go by the time the Red Sox' playoff debut (likely in the Wild Card round) rolls around, especially considering that the imminent end of the Minor League season will leave the outfielder without a place to rehab against live competition once he's healthy enough to return to the field.
The odds are good that Anthony could return for the ALDS or ALCS, should Boston make it that far. Keeping him on the roster cold as a potential pinch-hit option feels like a waste of a spot, though, no matter how good he's been.
Seattle Mariners: Luis Castillo
This one hurts, I'll admit. Castillo has been a stalwart for Seattle for years now, and with the team finally on the precipice of returning to the playoffs, would the Mariners really leave him out in the cold? Unfortunately, they might not have a choice: You only need three starters for a Wild Card series, and right now Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo and George Kirby are the obvious choices. Heck, even Bryce Miller is probably ahead of Castillo given how badly the latter has struggled of late. And he doesn't figure to profile well in a move to the bullpen, meaning he could be out of luck.
Milwaukee Brewers: Jake Bauers
No one saw the Andrew Vaughn breakout coming, but come it did, and it could leave Bauers out of a job in a few weeks' time. The outfield is crowded as it is, and with Rhys Hoskins returning, there's virtually no chance that Milwaukee would carry three first basemen on its NLDS roster. Bauers doesn't run well, and he's not the most versatile defender, toggling between the corner outfield spots and the cold corner. Maybe they keep him around as a bench bat just to give Pat Murphy a lefty option to pinch-hit with, but I doubt it.
Philadelphia Phillies: Jordan Romano
This one will do Phillies fans a world of good. With Jhoan Duran now in town and Daniel Robertson once again defying Father Time, the Philly bullpen is ... settled? Maybe? For the first time all season? If Orion Kerkering gets his act together before October, the Phillies could against all odds enter the playoffs with a relief corps that won't give fans agita. And it's also one that will allow them to finally jettison Romano, whose penchant for implosions has left Rob Thomson pulling his hair out. That's the sort of thing that will not fly come playoff time, when one bad outing can end your season.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Michael Conforto
This would've been unthinkable a few months ago, when Conforto became what seemed to be one of the sneakier signings of the offseason. But now it can't come soon enough for Dodgers fans: The veteran outfielder has been miserable at the plate all season long, despite Dave Roberts' faith in his previous track record. Track record goes out the window in October, though, and with Max Muncy back and Tommy Edman and Hyeseong Kim on the mend as well, there's no reason to give Conforto any more leash.
Chicago Cubs: Justin Turner
Turner hasn't been the sort of valuable bench bat Chicago envisioned this year. At this point, his value adds are really veteran leadership and an ability to hit lefties, the latter of which was mitigated by the addition of switch-hitting first baseman/DH Carlos Santana. The Santana move seems to have more or less sealed Turner's fate come playoff time; but he'll still be in the dugout coaching up the youngsters.
San Diego Padres: Randy Vasquez
With Michael King now back (again) from the IL, Vasquez figures to be the odd man out in this rotation once October rolls around. King, Nick Pivetta and Dylan Cease are locked in, with Yu Darvish also looming as a potential option in some capacity. That, combined with San Diego's cavalcade of power arms in the bullpen (even without Jason Adam) means the former throw-in to the Juan Soto trade doesn't really have a role for himself once the postseason begins.
New York Mets: Ronny Mauricio
Quick: When was the last time Mauricio had an at-bat in a game that was still relatively competitive? The answer is all the way back in late August, which should tell you all you need to know about what the Mets think of where Mauricio falls in their group of young infielders. He simply hasn't taken the necessary strides at the plate, and he doesn't run or defend well enough to make a ton of sense as a bench option.