One swing from Pete Alonso adds onto lose-lose David Stearns situation

Pete Alonso, as he seemingly has a knack for, came up big when the New York Mets needed him most. He drilled a walk-off three-run home run on Sunday, allowing the Mets to snap their eight-game losing streak and extend their lead in the NL Wild Card race. Things haven't gone too well for New York or Alonso of late, but this one swing, similarly to the one he had in Milwaukee in last year's postseason, could get the Mets back on the right track.

Alonso famously drilled a go-ahead three-run homer in last year's Wild Card series, giving the Mets a lead in a win-or-go-home game that they would not relinquish. The swing was pretty similar to the one we saw on Sunday, too. The Mets rode the momentum given to them from that Alonso home run all the way to the NLCS. It remains to be seen what Sunday's walk-off home run will do for the 2025 Mets, but it was easily the biggest hit of the season thus far.

While it was exciting to see Alonso come up big in the clutch, that swing only makes it clearer that Mets President of Baseball Operations, David Stearns, faces a near impossible deicison with Alonso this upcoming offseason.

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David Stearns faces impossible offseason task with Pete Alonso

Alonso signed a two-year, $54 million deal to remain with the Mets after an offseason full of frustrating negotiations. Alonso hoped to sign a long-term deal with the Mets or really any other team, but that offer wasn't out there for him coming off a down year.

Alonso came back to New York determined to prove himself, and he did that in April, posting a 1.132 OPS while drawing more walks than strikeouts. Alonso looked as potent at the plate as he ever had, and he seemed like a lock to get the contract he's desired. Well, his play ever since has been inconsistent at best, raising the question of whether the Mets would even want him at all, let alone be willing to give him the monster deal he and agent Scott Boras seek.

The logical answer to that question might be no, but with Alonso likely to opt out of his deal and test free agency, a swing like this makes whatever Stearns decides a lose-lose situation.

Pete Alonso's limitations makes him a hard player to commit long-term to

Alonso is a really good player, but is he someone the Mets should be eager to give a long-term, nine-figure deal to? We all know he can hit for tremendous power, and he's got a knack in big moments, but the rest of his game, well, leaves a lot to be desired.

Alonso has consistently been a subpar defender at first base, and he ranks in the eighth percentile in OAA this season per Baseball Savant. He's gotten very good at picking throws in the dirt, but his range is suspect and his throwing is atrocious. Fielding only gets worse with age, so how many more years can the Mets even afford to keep him in the field?

Another area where Alonso struggles is inconsistency. He has months when he's extremely locked in, and others when he looks like a shell of himself. Here's a look at how Alonso has done by month this season.

Alonso has either performed at a superstar level or like a sub-.770 OPS player, and he's alternated his hot and cold streaks by month. The hot streaks are fun, obviously, but is it worth giving a player this streaky such a large contract? I mean, when taking his ridiculous April out of the equation, he has a .784 OPS since the start of May. Considering his subpar defense (and base running) when Alonso isn't hitting at a star level, he isn't adding much value. It's not as if his streakiness is a one-year fluke, either. Here's a look at Alonso's 2024 season.

The valleys weren't quite as poor, but the peaks weren't as extraordinary outside of his postseason heroics. Alonso was hot-and-cold throughout last year's regular season and only really performed like a superstar in October. Obviously, performing when it matters most deserves extra credit, but the sixth-month regular season matters a ton, too. Can the Mets assume he'll do enough in the regular season to justify handing him a huge contract?

One swing from Pete Alonso shows his value to the Mets

He might have his flaws as a player, but his walk-off home run from Sunday shows why he's so valuable to the Mets. When the Mets desperately needed a win, Alonso was the one who came through. He's had a knack for this throughout his career, but particularly lately.

Not only is Alonso clutch in huge moments, but he's as good a run producer as there is in the game. He's hit at least 34 home runs in each of his six full seasons (excluding 2020) and has four seasons in which he's driven in at least 110 runs. His 117 RBI this season trails only Kyle Schwarber for the MLB lead.

I have questions about his defense and consistency, but the reality of the situation is that run producers of Alonso's ability do not grow on trees. If the Mets let him go, how will they replace the 35+ home runs and 100+ RBI he seems to put up every year? Even with him in their lineup, they haven't been scoring enough consistently. How will they do that without him?

David Stearns faces a lose-lose situation with Pete Alonso

Ultimately, whatever Stearns decides to do with Alonso feels like the wrong decision. If he re-signs Alonso, the odds of a big deal aging well are pretty slim. I have confidence that Alonso can continue to be an elite run producer for at least a couple of seasons, but once his power starts to decline, his value tanks hard.

If he doesn't re-sign Alonso, how exactly would the Mets replace his production? They're in a win-now window with guys like Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto in their primes. Replacing a 35+ home run hitter who drives in 100+ runs is easier said than done. He's the most prolific power hitter in the history of the franchise for a reason.

It's a bad idea to give Alonso a lengthy deal, but it's also a bad idea to let him walk. If he's open to another short-term deal with an opt-out, the Mets would be foolish to pass on that, but who's to say Alonso would be willing to go that route again, especially with the same franchise? Assuming he isn't, the Mets are likely going to make a mistake no matter what they decide.