The San Diego Padres had seemingly all of the momentum heading into this past weekend's series at Dodger Stadium against their arch-rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers. They had taken over first place in the NL West, they were playing extremely well, they had just made several trade deadline blockbusters, and the Dodgers were struggling. Well, not only did the Padres fail to carry that momentum into Dodger Stadium, but they left the series trailing the Dodgers by 2.0 games in the NL West. They were swept in the three-game set, and an A.J. Preller oversight was a huge reason why.
Preller bolstered what was already MLB's best bullpen by acquiring Mason Miller. He improved the lineup by acquiring Ryan O'Hearn, Ramon Laureano and Freddy Fermin. As for the starting rotation, well, the only players he acquired were JP Sears and Nestor Cortes Jr. Sears was already sent down to Triple-A, and while I'm not here to say Cortes isn't a decent starter, it felt as if the Padres could've used a high-end arm in their rotation and they didn't get one. They paid the price for it in Los Angeles.
Just before the series started, Michael King went on the injured list with knee inflammation, forcing the Padres to use Wandy Peralta as an opener and Randy Vasquez as a bulk reliever. This wasn't necessarily Preller's fault, but his next two best starters, Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish, combined to allow seven earned runs in 7.1 innings of work, issuing a combined eight walks along the way.
This goes to show the need for a high-end starter that unfortunately wasn't met.
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Padres have reason to regret not addressing rotation more
In Preller's defense, not many, if any, high-end starters were moved. However, instead of using Leo De Vries to acquire Miller, could the Padres not have added a starter? Miller is great, but again, the bullpen was already the best in the game and the rotation needed work. Now, that unit is a mess.
Michael King is really good when healthy, but he already missed over two months with a shoulder injury this season, and now, is out again with a knee issue. The knee injury appears to be minor, and there's even a chance he'll be back when first eligible after the 15 days are up, but he hasn't shown an ability to stay on the field. That makes him tough to lean on.
Their No. 2 starter is supposed to be Cease, but he hasn't pitched like one. He allowed three runs in 3.1 innings against the Dodgers on Saturday and issued six walks. Cease is supremely talented and I'd say he's gotten a bit unlucky this season, but he has a 4.61 ERA in 25 starts overall, and he's completed six innings just nine times all year. He can turn it on at any moment, but to this point, he's yet to do so.
Their No. 3 starter is supposed to be Darvish, but he allowed four runs in four innings against the Dodgers, and now has a 5.97 ERA in eight starts this season. He's had trouble staying on the field in recent years, and right now, he looks like a shell of his former star self.
This goes to show that the Padres might've been better off prioritizing a starter rather than bullpen help.
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I can understand turning a strength into a superpower. It truly feels as if the Padres can manage to get a lead after four or five innings, any given game has the potential to be over when their bullpen is fully rested. Relying heavily on the bullpen can work in October - it did for the Dodgers just last season.
However, are we sure the Padres will have many early leads given the state of their rotation? Again, who knows whether King will be healthy based on what we've seen from him this season? Who knows what version of Cease and Darvish we're going to see when the lights are bright? The Padres might not need much from their starters, but their starters might not be able to meet the minimal needs this team does have.
Having a dominant bullpen is a great thing, but there's only so much an inning or two of Mason Miller in October can provide. He can hold a lead or keep the team close, but the starting pitchers might take the Padres out of a given game before even getting a chance to go to Miller at this rate. Starting pitching can win or lose any given game for you, it's much harder for relievers to have close to the same kind of impact.
I applaud Preller's desire to win, and do so in his vision. If it works, he'll be praised for it, and rightfully so. If it does not, he'll be criticized for his choice to prioritize the bullpen over the rotation when the bullpen was a strength and the rotation was a weakness, again, rightfully so.