There were a lot of special individual seasons in MLB this year. Tarik Skubal is about to win back-to-back Cy Young awards in Detroit. Kyle Schwarber hit his way into Phillies history with 56 home runs. Cal Raleigh hit 60 home runs as a switch-hitting catcher. Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani? Well, those are almost certainly your MVP winners again. We know what to expect with those guys at this point.
And yet, despite all the fanfare, Paul Skenes put together arguably the best pound-for-pound performance of anyone. He's not going to win MVP, of course, as pitchers tend to fall short in that conversation. But Skenes will win NL Cy Young. He put up a 1.97 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, with 216 strikeouts in 187.2 innings. He has a 1.96 ERA through 320.2 innings in his first two MLB seasons. That is just absurd. Those are video game stats (although I typically find it hard to reach those heights in MLB The Show, personally).
So why has Skenes, on the verge of winning the National League's highest pitching honor, been such a popular hypothetical trade target for months? People talk about it. All the time. But he's under club control through 2029 and he's probably the single biggest financial draw for Pittsburgh Pirates owner Bob Nutting, not to mention their best player by a country mile. At 23 years old. Seriously, why would Pittsburgh ever consider trading him?
Well... they aren't. For now. The Athletic's Jim Bowden recently put together his list of the 10 biggest MLB stars "most likely" to get traded this winter. Skenes was not present. That doesn't mean something can't materialize out of nowhere, but Pittsburgh officials have consistently rebuked the concept. It seems like Pittsburgh will keep Skenes.
That is good news, but it's only temporary. If the Pirates want the conversation to end permanently — and for folks to embrace the possibility of a career spent in Pittsburgh — things need to change. And fast.
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Paul Skenes isn't on the trade market... yet
The Pirates absolutely and unequivocally should not, under any circumstances, trade Paul Skenes. He is quite possibly the most valuable single trade asset in MLB — a 23-year-old ace on a historic arc and with a cheap, controllable contract. That is why folks talk about it. If the Pirates aren't going to build a serious team around Skenes, some believe they might as well cash in and start from scratch.
But Skenes is still years away from his prime, in theory. He has a chance to put together the best individual pitching career in recent history. A lot can happen with a pitcher's elbow over the years, of course, but pitchers with Skenes' blend of velocity, durability and control are exceedingly rare, especially at such a young age. He's poised beyond his years, with the stuff to challenge any offense, any day of the week.
The Pirates will almost certainly never recoup Skenes' value in a trade. Even if Pittsburgh can get a few high-profile positional prospects and begin to build out a better offense, there are ways to improve their long-term outlook that don't involve siphoning off the greatest arm in a decade-plus. The Pirates should hope to build a winner around Skenes. It's fully possible. Plenty of small-market teams have overcome cash-strapped owners to deliver a durable contender.
The fact that Pittsburgh isn't floating Skenes in trades right now tells us two things. One, Pittsburgh enjoys its current ticket and merch sales with Skenes on the roster. He's a cash cow that Bob Nutting is unlikely to part with until absolutely necessary. But, if we give the Pirates' brass even a little bit of credit (I know, I know), it also tells us the team hopes to put a more complete roster around him before 2029. That time crunch will be felt sooner than later. Pittsburgh has to be cooking up something behind the scenes.
Pirates need to prove it to fans — and to Skenes — that contention is possible
For as dominant as Skenes is, he cannot single-handedly deliver Pittsburgh to the postseason. Not with a ramshackle bullpen and MLB's worst offense supporting him. The Pirates are saddled with the burden of proof here. Just because the Pirates want to build a winner, like every team, that does not mean they can.
Ben Cherington has quickly earned his reputation as one of the worst general managers in MLB. Pittsburgh has consistently squandered the development of top prospects, lost trades, and failed to hit on any players of value in free agency. Some of it comes back to Nutting and Pirates ownership, as Pittsburgh has one of the widest gaps between profit and payroll. Cherington, however, has done absolutely nothing with his shoestring budget. Other small-market teams can develop talent internally and make savvy moves on the margins. Not Pittsburgh.
If there is a glimmer of hope — aside from management's current intention to continue building around Skenes — is comes in the form of manager Don Kelly, who took over as the interim manager after Derek Shelton's midseason firing. Pittsburgh's on-field product immediately improved, despite a truly abysmal roster. The Pirates finished the season 44-37 at home. Learning to win on the road is the next step, but Kelly was able to maximize his pitching resources and put the offense in a position to scrap its way to wins at PNC Park. Kelly might be the clearest indicator yet that something better is possible.
As Pittsburgh management overhauls the coaching staff, looks inward, and feels the mounting pressure that comes with rostering a generational talent like Skenes, Pirates fans can at least proceed with cautious optimism. There won't be immediate results in 2026. It will be a patient process. But if Skenes keeps it up, if Kelly continues to change the locker room culture, and if Pittsburgh can unearth more developmental wins internally under a new staff, the future might not be so bleak. The vibes are better now than they were in May. That much is certain.