Paul Skenes’ latest Cy Young chase should have Rob Manfred especially nervous

It only took until Sept. 4, but Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes finally has a winning record.

Not only did Skenes throw six shutout innings in Thursday’s 5-3 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers, but he improved to 10-9 with a league-best 1.98 ERA. Skenes struck out eight and allowed only two hits, furthering his Cy Young resume and helping the last-place Pirates sweep the fearsome Dodgers.

“They call it ‘The Show’ for a reason,” Skenes said. 

“That’s the stuff that you enjoy,” Skenes continued. “Going for a sweep at home against arguably the best team in baseball, those are cool opportunities. You can’t take them for granted.”

There’s been no sophomore slump for Skenes, who leads the National League with 195 strikeouts through 29 starts. His 6.9 bWAR tops all pitchers, and he’s one of only six players leaguewide with at least a 6.0 bWAR.

Now, Skenes can say that he sits above .500, which is excellent news for him and MLB commissioner Rob Manfred.

Rob Manfred desperately needs Paul Skenes to finish with a winning record

Skenes remains the heavy favorite to win his first Cy Young Award, and he’ll certainly have earned the right even if he finishes at, or even below, .500. The two-time All-Star estimated that he has four or five starts remaining, so he can theoretically finish 13-9, 10-12, or anything in between. 

At no point in league history has a starting pitcher won the Cy Young Award with a losing record. Although Dodgers closer Eric Gagné captured the 2003 NL Cy Young Award at 2-3, he posted a 1.20 ERA and went a perfect 55-for-55 in save opportunities. In hindsight, San Francisco Giants ace Jason Schmidt (6.7 bWAR and a 2.34 ERA in 207 2/3 innings) should have won the honor, but that’s a conversation for another day.

On its own, Skenes potentially winning the Cy Young Award with a losing record isn’t the problem. The issue would instead be that Manfred and the league have enabled Pirates ownership to repeatedly field uncompetitive, low-budget teams. There’s never been any real pressure on organizations like the Pirates, Tampa Bay Rays, or Miami Marlins to spend if they don’t want to.

Baseball fans have followed the Pirates long enough that they can probably predict their offseason plans to a T. Pittsburgh will likely trade a veteran or two, perhaps including starting pitcher Mitch Keller, and fill their roster with older players seeking prove-it deals. Then, the Pirates will explore trading them ahead of next summer’s deadline amid another losing campaign. The cycle will continue, and it’s one that Manfred and the others seemingly have no interest in changing. 

Suppose Skenes pitched for the Giants with the same numbers—his record, ERA, and the fact that he received two or fewer runs of support in 11 of his 29 starts. In that scenario, Skenes winning the Cy Young wouldn’t raise many eyebrows, since the Giants have a reputation for competing and chasing championships. Many Cy Young winners have played on losing teams, and the 71-69 Giants are still fighting to finish above .500.

Instead, Skenes is one of only two players with at least a 2.0 bWAR (reliever Dennis Santana entered Friday at 2.1 bWAR) on a 64-77 Pirates team battling to avoid another 90-loss season. When the Cy Young race is done, maybe Manfred can subtly urge the Pirates to free Skenes and trade him this winter. 

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