The Philadelphia Phillies aren't done making moves. Days after axing Joe Ross, the Phillies have agreed to terms on a minor league contract with Walker Buehler. The 31-year-old righty began the season with the Boston Red Sox but was cut after posting a 5.45 ERA through 23 appearances (22 starts).
Buehler will begin his Phillies tenure with Triple-A Lehigh Valley, with plans to start him with the MLB club on Sept. 12 and run a six-man rotation through the end of the campaign.
It's only natural for fans to look at Buehler's numbers this season with apprehension. Ask a Red Sox fan and this is the worst possible signing a team with World Series aspirations could make. And there is truth to that sentiment, but only if looking at it through a certain lens. The Phillies just need to be careful.
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.
Phillies need to tread carefully with Walker Buehler
Buehler has been bad this season. It's a blanket statement of truth. There have been peaks and valleys, of course, but Buehler has spent a lot more time navigating the river at the bottom of the Grand Canyon than he has admiring the sunset from up top.
Boston inked him to a $21 million contract in hopes that Buehler would replicate his success during the Dodgers' 2024 postseason run. He has the accolades to back up such an investment. Buehler is a two-time champ and a two-time All-Star. He finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting as recently as 2021. It's not like he isn't capable of shutdown performances. That said, Buehler also has a long track record of inconsistency amid injuries, which was the story of his campaign in Boston.
The Phillies cannot look at Buehler as a rotation staple. Moving to a six-man rotation for a few weeks to build in extra rest for Cristopher Sánchez, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suárez is smart. (God knows Ranger really needs it.) But as soon as October rolls around, Buehler should probably be banished to long relief duties, if he even makes the postseason roster to begin with. He is a means to an end, not a solution to... anything. Through that lens, this signing is perfectly fine.
Phillies shouldn't count on Walker Buehler to rekindle past postseason magic
There is a world, however, in which the Phillies view Buehler as a potential buy-low candidate with postseason equity. Even in 2024, after a brutal regular season in L.A., Buehler found a higher gear down the stretch and came up with huge outs for an injury-plagued postseason rotation. He even finished out the World Series, picking up a commanding save in Game 5 against New York.
That does not feel like a realistic expectation given Buehler's struggles this season. He isn't working his way slowly back from injury; he has had a nice runway here to, ideally, hit his stride. It has not happened.
MLB is never predictable, so this is liable to change if Buehler comes in and throws gas for a couple of of weeks to end the regular season. But assuming we see more of the same, he should be far from the postseason rotation. That feels like a safe assumption given the pitching depth on this Phillies roster, even after the Zack Wheeler injury, but it's worth stating in unequivocal terms.
The real question then becomes: should Buehler join the bullpen in October? He's certainly better, or at least offers a higher ceiling, than the aforementioned Joe Ross. He can give the Phillies a few innings in a pinch. Maybe he can even play his stuff up a bit in a more confined role.
But in reality, Buehler should never see a high-leverage (or even a regular leverage) situation. Philly has bullets in the bullpen. Jhoan Durán, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, David Robertson and Tanner Banks should dominate the innings of import. Philly also recently picked up Tim Mayza, who struggled last season but was lights out in 2023, posting a 1.52 ERA in 53.1 innings. The lefty only has 9.1 innings under his belt this season (with a 2.89 ERA), but he's a far more interesting emergency option than Buehler as we embark on this stretch run.
If Buehler is the guy who logs three innings in a blowout, fine. Whatever. But if the Phillies decide to see what he's made of in a close game, just be prepared for a disappointing outcome.