The Philadelphia Phillies lost 6-1 to the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday night, which snapped a nice four-game win streak. With the New York Mets in free fall, the Phils still hold a commanding five-game lead in the NL East. But the impetus for the loss in Cincinnati was enough to raise alarm bells in the City of Brotherly Love.
Ranger Suárez, who entered the All-Star break with a sub-2.00 ERA, gave up 10 hits, two walks and six earned runs in 5.1 innings, with only three strikeouts. He has now allowed 21 earned runs in 29.2 innings over his last five starts.
The overall numbers look solid — 3.28 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 101 strikeouts in 112.1 innings — but Suárez is very much trending in the wrong direction. Even more worrying in his sustained decline in velocity, which dates back to 2023.
This velocity trendline for Ranger Suarez feels very unsustainable and ominous to me going forward pic.twitter.com/bZxLufbTvO
— Anthony Dabbundo (@AnthonyDabbundo) August 12, 2025
This is an extremely inconvenient development for the Phillies. Suárez still has a couple months to get things in gear before the playoffs, but suddenly Philadelphia's rotation feels a lot less stable than expected. Once pegged as the deepest rotation in MLB, one has to wonder if the Phillies can even field a third starter they trust behind Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sánchez at this point.
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Ranger Suárez's struggles put Phillies rotation in a bind
Where exactly does Philly proceed from here? Suárez is the logical third starter in a hypothetical postseason rotation. He has a strong track record in October, which may be enough for Philly to bank on precedent and ignore his recent slide. Every pitcher goes through rough patches and few are as poised and mentally tough as Suárez.
That said, if Suárez is can't bury his sinker in the zone and rack up groundballs, he won't be long for the postseason rotation. But where else can Philly turn? Aaron Nola hasn't played in months. He put up a 6.16 ERA in nine starts before the injury. If that was more a sign of age than a sign of injury, the Phillies probably can't trust him. Which is unfortunate, because Nola has been such a stabilizing force for so long.
Jesús Luzardo has outperformed Suárez of late, but only marginally. Not unlike Suárez, Luzardo came out of the gate putting up Cy Young numbers for Philadelphia, only to see a rapid decline in recent months. He now sits at a 4.20 ERA on the season, but he packs vicious strikeout stuff, whereas Suárez plays to contact with varying levels of success.
Phillies need someone to break through in the final months
With Andrew Painter struggling at the Triple-A level, it doesn't seem like Philly is ready to call up its top prospect as expected. Mick Abel went to Minnesota in the Jhoan Durán trade, so he's not an option. Taijuan Walker has actually been phenomenal for most of this season, but there's no way Philly starts him in the playoffs (...right?).
Philadelphia has a few semi-intriguing options kicking around Triple-A, besides Painter. Matt Manning put up a 3.58 ERA in 15 starts with Detroit last season. Seth Johnson has starting experience, although Philly has used him exclusively out of the bullpen this season. Alan Rangel put 11.0 solid innings of bullpen work in earlier this season for the Phils. He's a starter by trade.
None of those options feel like the magical solution to this problem, though. The Phillies need one of Suárez or Luzardo to course-correct in the weeks ahead. Either that, or Nola needs to come back from this rehab stint throwing gas. Nola looked great in his latest Triple-A start, but MLB is a whole different beast, as he well knows.
There is a sick part of my soul that wants to see Taijuan Walker start in the playoffs, on the off chance that he just delivers six solid innings and complete this monumental comeback arc. But that is not a smart bet and Rob Thomson (hopefully) knows that. So yeah, it's a game of hope for the Phillies right now.
One potential "solution" once Nola is back: stretching the rotation to six to build in extra rest for everyone. That might be worth a shot, as Walker has genuinely earned his spot.