The Philadelphia Phillies went back to the Minnesota Twins after their blockbuster trade for RHP Jhoan Durán, acquiring OF Harrison Bader in exchange for two lesser-known prospects. Dave Dombrowski is officially awake after a sleepy offseason, but Bader's arrival brings just as many questions as answers.
This is undoubtedly an upgrade. Bader's pretty much a rental, as his contract features a $10 million mutual option for 2026 which is unlikely to convey. But for the next two months, he figures to meaningfully improve a weak Phillies outfield group. It's fair to argue that he won't improve them enough, but even incremental growth will be deeply felt.
Bader can hit both righties and lefties at a fair clip. He's batting .258 on the season with a .778 OPS and 117 wRC+. He's especially good on the grass, where he covers a lot of ground and displays elite coordination with his glove and arm. Philly's outfield defense has been brushed under the rug with how bad their offense is, but between Max Kepler and Nick Castellanos, there have been real problems at the corners.
This trade puts the future of one Phillies vet in particular under the microscope.
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.
Harrison Bader trade helps Phillies banish Max Kepler
Kepler has been a total dud for the Phillies. Signed last winter to replace the outgoing Austin Hays in left, there was hope that the 32-year-old might unearth some of his old magic. Once a 30-plus home run threat, however, Kepler's bat has fallen off, and he's not good enough defensively to make up for it. Not even close.
He's batting .203 with a .655 OPS and 11 home runs on the campaign. Bader isn't a huge slugging threat, but he can hit for average and provide more than enough pop to justify relegating Kepler to a reserve role (before not re-signing him as a free agent in 2026).
Philly's whole outfield has underwhelmed this season, so there are arguments to be made about replacing different outfielders. But the best bet is putting Bader in centerfield more or less full time, with Brandon Marsh earning the majority of starts in left. Marsh still struggles to hit lefties (10-for-49 on the season), but he's no more catastrophically bad than Kepler (10-for-51).
If Phillies outfield can't hit, they can at least play defense
Bader (2.0) and Marsh (1.1) are both significantly better than Kepler in terms of fWAR this season (0.1). Nick Castellanos actually brings up the rear in that department (-0.2), but the Phillies need some pop from this group. Casty can still get hot and rip a few dingers and he has an appreciable affection for the postseason spotlight.
Johan Rojas (0.5) struggles all-around at the plate, but he can still hit lefties marginally better than Marsh, so that platoon may not be completely dead. Rojas, Philly's best defensive outfielder even after the Bader trade, should slot comfortably ahead of Kepler in the depth chart. It's much more interesting to plug Bader and Rojas in left and center, respectively, than to trot Kepler back out there when the matchup does not favor Marsh. That at least gives Philly's shaky defense a massive upgade.
Rojas also has far more long-term utility and upside than anyone in the Phillies outfield right now, even if it feels like a fool's errand to project meaningful offensive growth. So rather than axing the 25-year-old, Kepler — on a one-year, $10 million contract — should be the closest Phillies veteran to the roster bubble. Otto Kemp has experience in left field, so he can grab a start out there in a pinch. The Phils should lean into their youth a bit, especially with Justin Crawford on the MLB fast track.