The AL East is what it usually is: hyper-competitive. The Toronto Blue Jays have led the division for a couple of months, but their lead is rapidly shrinking. The New York Yankees have had their ups and downs, but they've played a bit better lately. The Boston Red Sox traded Rafael Devers, but have (somehow) been better without him than with him, allowing them to sit comfortably in a playoff spot. The Tampa Bay Rays have underwhelmed slightly, but even they're over .500 and still in the playoff hunt.
The only true disappointment is the Baltimore Orioles, a team many expected to compete for the division crown but will miss the playoffs. As poorly as things have gone for them, they've played well for a while since their brutal start.
Four of the five fanbases in this division are focused on September and October, and understandably so, but the offseason is rapidly approaching, whether we want to acknowledge that reality or not. We won't have a Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto-esque headliner to this offseason's free agency, but there are several big-name players slated to enter the open market, headlined by players on each of these five AL East teams.
With that in mind, let's take a look at each AL East's team's best upcoming free agent and predict whether they're more likely to stay put or land elsewhere.
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Baltimore Orioles: RHP Zach Eflin
A lot has gone wrong for the Baltimore Orioles this season, but nothing has failed this team more than starting pitching. Some of their struggles on this front were predictable, but they ran into their share of bad luck as well. Zach Eflin is front and center in that regard.
Eflin, a major trade deadline acquisition in 2024, really impressed late in that season, giving the Orioles reason to believe he could be a frontline arm for them. Unfortunately, he's posted a 5.93 ERA in 14 starts this season, and a back injury has ended his season prematurely.
Betting on an Eflin bounce-back could make some sense for Baltimore, as his track record is solid, but the O's really need a sure thing at the top of their rotation. For whatever reason, it simply didn't work for him in Baltimore this season. He might succeed elsewhere, but it still makes the most sense to let him go.
Verdict: Go
Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Adrian Houser
The Tampa Bay Rays did what they do best at this year's trade deadline - confuse people. They sold some players like Zack Littell and Jose Caballero, but also bought by acquiring guys like Griffin Jax and Adrian Houser.
Houser was in the middle of a resurgent season with the Chicago White Sox, but his Rays tenure hasn't gone as smoothly. The right-hander has a 4.91 ERA in six starts and 33 innings with the Rays, and he's allowed four or more runs in four of his six starts. It hasn't been pretty.
With that in mind, why exactly would the Rays be eager to bring him back, especially when Shane McClanahan should be healthy next season? The Rays don't have room for him in their 2026 rotation, and Houser realistically is nothing more than a No. 5 starter. He should help a rotation somewhere, but not in Tampa Bay.
Verdict: Go
Alex Bregman: Boston Red Sox
We didn't know where Alex Bregman was going to play when he signed with the Boston Red Sox, but there were reasons to believe this was a match made in heaven. It turns out that he's the heir apparent for Rafael Devers at third base, and he's had a Devers-esque year offensively while being a major step up defensively.
Bregman is slashing .281/.364/.485 with 16 home runs and 54 RBI in 95 games played. Injury has cost him some time, but when he's been able to play, he's been stellar both on the field and especially as a leader of the team.
Bregman had to settle for a short-term deal with opt-outs last offseason, but it goes without saying that he's earned the long-term deal that he and Scott Boras wanted last winter. After trading Devers away, the last thing the Red Sox can afford to do is lose Bregman to free agency. I'm going to assume that John Henry will pony up and give Bregman the long-term deal he deserves and Bregman will stay with the team he's clearly enjoyed being a part of.
Verdict: Stay
Cody Bellinger: New York Yankees
Cody Bellinger was part of the New York Yankees' "Plan B" after losing out on Juan Soto, and he's been everything the team could've envisioned and then some. Bellinger was coming off a lost season with the Cubs, performing so poorly to the point where Chicago essentially dumped his contract onto the Yankees for nothing.
Well, Bellinger is slashing .278/.332/.505 with 27 home runs and 86 RBI this season while playing his usual elite outfield defense. He's been so valuable, in fact, that his 4.4 fWAR isn't far behind Soto's 4.9 while making substantially less money.
As for whether he stays or goes, that answer is really tough. On one hand, losing Bellinger would be a major blow considering how well he's played and how perfect a fit he's been. On the other hand, he's going to cost a ton, and the Yankees happen to have Spencer Jones, one of their top prospects, in Triple-A, ready to take over in the outfield.
Whether the Yankees bring Bellinger back likely depends on the contract he ends up commanding in free agency. The Yankees should want him back, but with Jones waiting in the wings, they shouldn't feel desperate to overpay. I'm going to say he stays, but that one really could go either way.
Verdict: Stays
Bo Bichette: Toronto Blue Jays
Speaking of resurgences, Bo Bichette has had a resurgent year of his own for the Toronto Blue Jays. He missed a large chunk of last season with injury and struggled mightily when he was on the field, but in 2025, he's looked like the Bichette of old.
The 27-year-old is slashing .307/.352/.477 with 18 home runs and 91 RBI this season. He leads the majors in at-bats, hits and doubles while also being an elite run producer. There are questions about whether he should be at shortstop long-term, but the bat is unbelievable, and has been for much of his career,
The Blue Jays realistically cannot let him go anywhere, mainly because who is a core piece for them to build around alongside Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? George Springer has had an unbelievable year, but he's 35 years old. Addison Barger has shown signs of stardom, but he's had his ups and downs lately. The Blue Jays have a lot of good, not great, position players outside of Guerrero. Bichette, even with his defensive flaws, would give them another great hitter. The contract will probably be one they don't love in four or five years, but they should be trying to win now.