Predicting how the final week of the MLB regular season will play out

No one can dare accuse the final week of the 2025 MLB regular season of being boring, and that’s just how the league should want it.

As of Sept. 23, several key races are worth focusing on, with three or fewer games separating the first- and second-place teams in the AL East, AL Central, AL West, and NL West. Additionally, the Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros entered Tuesday tied for the AL’s third and final Wild Card spots, though the Detroit Tigers could enter the mix. Over in the NL, the Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets, and Arizona Diamondbacks are duking it out for the last Wild Card seed.

There are also some seeding issues to sort out. Remember: The top two teams in each league get a bye, and the No. 3 team hosts all three Wild Card games against the No. 6 seed. The No. 4 and No. 5 seeds clash in their Wild Card series.

So, who will take care of business in the coming days, and which teams will come up short? Let’s take an in-depth look.

AL East: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees

Current situation: The Blue Jays entered Sept. 23 with a two-game lead over the Yankees. Depending on how the final week plays out, the loser should be the AL’s top Wild Card seed and No. 4 overall. Toronto owns the tiebreaker after winning 8 of 13 against the Yankees.

Prediction: The Blue Jays haven’t won the AL East since their 2015 ALCS run, and we expect that streak to snap this week. Toronto should be grateful for the tiebreaker, especially if the suddenly surging Yankees take care of business against the Chicago White Sox and Baltimore Orioles this week. As for the Blue Jays, they host the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays.

Aaron Judge and the Yankees are 12-7 in September, though we expect their prolonged summer slump will come back to haunt them. Although the Yankees would host the No. 5 seed (likely the rival Boston Red Sox) in the AL Wild Card Round if they fail to win the division, they lost nine of 13 to Boston this year. 

AL Central: Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians

Current situation: The Tigers held a 10-game lead on Sept. 3, though the Guardians are only suddenly one game behind. Cleveland is also tied for the AL’s third Wild Card spot (more on that shortly), meaning that the AL Central runner-up is not assured of a postseason berth.

Prediction: We’re taking the Guardians to overcome the Tigers and win their third AL Central title in four years. Any team that sees its division lead shrink by nine games in less than three weeks cannot be trusted. These Tigers are putting together one of the greatest collapses in sports history, going from 14 games up on July 8 to fighting for a division title in the season’s final days.

Cleveland hosts Detroit for a three-game set beginning Tuesday night, and we’re in for some fun. As for the weekend, the Tigers travel to Boston for a three-game set with the Red Sox, while Cleveland hosts the Texas Rangers.

AL West: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros

Current situation: The Mariners own a three-game lead over the Astros in the AL West. Seattle’s magic number to clinch its first AL West title since 2001 is down to three games. As with the AL Central, the runner-up is not guaranteed a postseason berth.

Prediction: We won’t go so far as to suggest Cal Raleigh and the Mariners are a team of destiny. However, we’re predicting that the Mariners will follow through and lock up the AL West. The Astros have lost too much ground, going from four games up on Sept. 3 to three back with six games left.

Houston ends the season with road trips against the Athletics and Angels. The Mariners welcome the lowly Colorado Rockies and NL West-leading Dodgers to Seattle this week, and speaking of the Dodgers…

NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres

Current situation: The Dodgers hold a 2 1/2-game advantage over the Padres, though both have already secured postseason spots. The NL West runner-up will finish with a top-two Wild Card berth; the Padres trail the Cubs by 2 1/2 games.

Prediction: Although the inconsistent Dodgers are 30-29 in the second half, they won’t blow their NL West lead. That’s the benefit of a 52-39 first half, and that’s the biggest reason why every game in a 162-game season matters. How many times did the Padres lose a winnable game during their 27-21 start? 

Regardless of how this week goes, the Padres have already clinched their third playoff berth in four years. We’ll see whether they can rally to claim their first NL West title since 2006, though the odds are certainly stacked against them.

The Padres notched a 5-4 walk-off victory over the NL Central champion Milwaukee Brewers on Monday night. San Diego has two games left against Milwaukee before welcoming the Arizona Diamondbacks for a three-game weekend set. The Dodgers have three-game road matchups with the Diamondbacks and Mariners.

AL Wild Card: Cleveland Guardians (and Detroit Tigers) vs. Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros 

Current situation: Houston and Cleveland woke up on Sept. 23 tied for the AL’s final Wild Card seed. Both are one game back of the Boston Red Sox. The New York Yankees have a three-game lead over Boston and, barring a collapse, will enter the postseason as the AL’s top Wild Card team. All of those teams have a chance to win their respective divisions, though the Guardians are the only ones trailing by one game.

Prediction: Let’s start with the Yankees, who we expect to close atop the Wild Card standings. After that, Boston faces the Blue Jays in Toronto before welcoming the Tigers to Fenway Park this weekend. Although the Red Sox are only 9-9 in September, we’re putting our faith in Alex Cora’s club and believe they’ll lock up the No. 2 Wild Card berth.

It’s too bad that we won’t see the Astros and Guardians clash this weekend. Unfortunately for Detroit fans, we’re picking the Astros to beat out the Tigers for the final Wild Card spot. Major changes might come to Detroit if they miss the playoffs, and the Tigers have no one to blame but themselves.

NL Wild Card: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Current situation: The Reds and Mets are tied for the NL’s third and final Wild Card seed. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are only a game behind the two. Elsewhere, only 2 ½ games separate the Cubs and Padres for the No. 1 seed, though both have already clinched postseason berths. 

Prediction: Three teams duking it out for a single Wild Card berth is exactly what Major League Baseball likely wants, though we’re sure they’d rather have the Mets in the postseason than the Reds or Diamondbacks. 

The Mets close at the Cubs and Marlins, while Cincinnati hosts the Pirates before welcoming the Brewers. Arizona, as mentioned, hosts the Dodgers and Padres.

Sorry, Mets fans, but we’re taking the Reds here. Although the Mets’ collapse isn’t as bad as Detroit’s, that’s not saying much. Opponents have outscored the Mets 97-89 in September, with plenty of that damage coming during New York’s eight-game losing streak from Sept. 6-13. We cannot stress enough that every game matters, and the Mets are paying the price.

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