Predicting whether each NL West team’s biggest free agent will stay or go this winter

Some of this offseason's biggest free agents currently reside in the NL West, making this division one of the most interesting ahead of the winter.
Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates
Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates | Joe Sargent/GettyImages

The NL West might not be quite as competitive as many thought it'd be, but it's still a division nobody wants to deal with. The Los Angeles Dodgers have been far from perfect, yet they still lead the division and are the reigning World Series champs after all. The San Diego Padres have had struggles of their own, but they're within striking distance of their arch-rivals. Both the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants have underperformed, leading to trade deadline sell-offs, but both of these teams still have a lot of talent and can easily bounce back in 2026. As for the Colorado Rockies, well, I don't have much to say.

Dodgers and Padres fans are focused on the stretch run of the regular season and October, understandably so, but the offseason isn't too far away. While there isn't a Shohei Ohtani-esque player set to hit free agency this winter, there are many intriguing free agents for teams to consider signing, several of which reside in the NL West.

With that in mind, here's a look at each NL West team's biggest free agent and whether it's likely they stay put or land elsewhere in 2026.

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Colorado Rockies: German Marquez

The 2025 season has been nothing short of disastrous for the now 39-101 Colorado Rockies. They are as bad as their record says they are, if not worse, so given that, there isn't much to get excited about when discussing their upcoming free agents. Longtime Rockie German Marquez is the best of the bunch.

Marquez has spent his entire 10-year MLB career with the Rockies and has honestly pitched pretty well considering he has to pitch at altitude half the time, but things haven't gone so well for him lately. He made a combined five starts in 2023 and 2024, and while he's been healthier this season, the results simply haven't been there. The right-hander has a 6.19 ERA in 22 starts and a 6.45 ERA in 10 starts at Coors Field. His 4.96 FIP suggests that he's run into a bit of bad luck, but he's also nothing more than a No. 5 starter at best, and even that might be stretching it.

As for whether Marquez will stay or go, that one's tough. On one hand, he really should go. It'll be interesting to see how he does without having to pitch at Coors Field half the time, and the Rockies really have no use for a 30-year-old coming off such a dreadful year. On the other hand, Marquez probably likes playing for the only organization he's ever known, and the Rockies have a tendency to hang onto their guys, with Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela as other examples. I'm going to say he ends up elsewhere, but I wouldn't be surprised if he signed a cheap one-year deal and stuck around.

Verdict: Go

Arizona Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen

The Arizona Diamondbacks sold off several veterans on expiring contracts at the trade deadline but held onto Zac Gallen. That goes to show just how poor the offers were for Gallen, who had an abysmal first four months of his season.

Well, he's begun turning things around lately, as his 2.20 ERA in his seven post-deadline starts would indicate. Gallen has gone at least six innings in all but one of those outings and has allowed three runs or fewer in all seven appearances. He's starting to look like the guy who had finished in the top five of the NL Cy Young balloting in two of his past three seasons entering 2025.

Gallen is slowly but surely raising his free agency value. I don't know if he's going to get the nine-figure deal he seemed like a lock to get ahead of 2025, but he might play his way out of needing to sign a "prove-it" kind of deal if he pitches well in September.

Where Gallen will end up is tough to predict, but I'm going to say he stays with the Diamondbacks because they need him. Merrill Kelly was traded away, Corbin Burnes will miss most, if not all of 2026, and there isn't much else to get excited about in that rotation. If the Diamondbacks want to compete in 2026, they're going to need to bolster their rotation. It's tough to envision that happening if Gallen isn't part of the equation.

Verdict: Stay

San Francisco Giants: Justin Verlander

The San Francisco Giants signed Justin Verlander to a one-year deal, hoping to milk the last bit of baseball out of him, and I'd say it's gone about as expected. His 4.29 ERA in 24 starts and 121.2 innings of work might not be stellar, but it isn't awful either, and can't be much worse than what the Giants expected from the 42-year-old.

Verlander has been mostly healthy this season, and while he's had his share of clunkers, he's also had some impressive outings. He's shown that he can still be a MLB-viable starter, which at his age is incredibly impressive.

I'm not sure whether Verlander will want to keep going after this season, but if he does, I'd be surprised if he pitches for the Giants. He hasn't been bad, but I'd think the Giants would want to aim higher following a very disappointing 2025 campaign.

Verdict: Go

San Diego Padres: Michael King

The San Diego Padres are in an interesting spot as two of their three best starting pitchers, Michael King and Dylan Cease, can hit free agency this winter. King has a $15 million mutual option that the Padres will accept, but the pitcher almost certainly will decline, and for good reason.

King doesn't have much experience as a starting pitcher, but he's proven in the last two seasons that he's one of the best in the National League. He finished seventh in the NL Cy Young balloting last season, and while he's been limited to just 11 starts in 2025, he's posted a 2.81 ERA in 57.2 innings of work. When he's healthy, he can match up against just about anyone, which is big for a Padres team that lacks much in their rotation behind him.

King might not have much starting experience, but what he's shown suggests he'll get quite a pretty penny in the offseason. Given that, I'm not so sure that a Padres team that has tons of money committed to its roster already will be willing to give him the money he's going to command on the open market. I believe he'll land elsewhere.

Verdict: Go

Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw

Many, myself included, thought Clayton Kershaw was essentially done. I thought that he was simply along for the ride this season and wouldn't contribute much to what was a stacked Los Angeles Dodgers rotation on paper. Well, not only has Kershaw pitched well, but the injury-riddled Dodgers have needed every bit of his contributions.

Kershaw has a 3.28 ERA in 18 starts and 93.1 innings of work, and the Dodgers have gone 12-6 in his starts. Against all odds, he's looked like a guy who could conceivably wind up making important postseason starts for them.

While this season has been a magical one for Kershaw, it could be his last. He's contemplated retirement before, and now, he's a 37-year-old who has had one final mostly healthy season. If Kershaw retires, he obviously won't return to the Dodgers in 2026. If he doesn't retire, though, he'll be back. There's just about no chance Kershaw will ever wear another uniform, and rightfully so.

Verdict: Stays unless he retires