Projecting when Aaron Judge will hit his 500th home run

New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge may not be the sport’s current home run leader, but he’s still finding new ways to make history.

Judge smashed his 350th career home run in Saturday’s 5-2 loss to the Chicago Cubs, doing so in 192 fewer games than Mark McGwire, the previous record holder. After going homerless in Sunday’s 4-1 loss to the Cubs, Judge enters the All-Star Break only 150 homers away from joining the 500-home run club.

When could Judge join the likes of Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, and Willie Mays in the 500-home run club? Here’s an early, educated guess.

When could Aaron Judge hit his 500th home run?

Plenty can change in the coming years, especially injuries and age. Judge got a slightly later start to his career and didn’t become an everyday starter until his age-25 season. Injuries limited him to 27 homers in both 2018 and 2019, and he only managed nine during the shortened 2020 campaign. 

Judge averaged 49 homers from 2021-24 and entered the All-Star Break with another 35. Not only is Judge well on pace for his third 50-home run season, but it’s not unfathomable that he reaches 60 for the second time. 

For the sake of ease, let’s say that Judge finishes 2025 with 55 home runs. In that case, he’d enter his age-34 season with 370 career homers and a five-year average of 50.2 home runs.

We won’t go so far as to say Judge would hit at least 50 home runs the next three seasons, putting him in position to join the 500-home run club in 2028. However, barring injury or disaster, Judge is on pace to hit his 500th home run in either late 2028 or early 2029.

The math is simple. A healthy Judge typically hits at least 40 homers per year, which at his current rate would give him at least 120 from 2026-28. Basic math dictates that 350 + 120 is 470, so early 2029 (April? May?) appears likelier than late 2028.

How many players have hit 500 home runs?

As of July 14, 2025, there are 28 players in the 500 home run club. Seven members — Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Eddie Murray, Rafael Palmeiro, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and Miguel Cabrera — also recorded at least 3,000 hits. 

However, only 21 of the 28 players are in the Hall of Fame. Pujols and Cabrera are ineligible until 2028 and 2029, respectively, though both should easily enter Cooperstown.

The other seven — Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Mark McGwire, Palmeiro, Manny Ramírez, Gary Sheffield, and Sammy Sosa — all either allegedly or confirmed that they used performance-enhancing drugs. Palmeiro, Ramírez, and Rodriguez all served PED-related suspensions.