Ranking all four MLB Wild Card series by upset potential

Although the calendar hasn’t quite turned to October yet, the MLB postseason has nonetheless arrived. The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers officially begin the next stage of defending their pennants, while the Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds, and Chicago Cubs return to the playoffs after a few years away.

However, we’re admittedly skeptical that all four Wild Card Series favorites will likely advance to the Divisional Round. All eight teams reached the playoffs for a reason, and some are in an excellent position to pull off an upset — or, at least, what the sportsbooks and oddsmakers consider an upset.

For this list, we used the FanDuel Sportsbook’s series odds as of Tuesday morning. The list is ranked in order of how likely we feel an upset is. We also want to stress that this is not us projecting which Wild Card teams have the best chance at reaching the World Series. This only applies to the Wild Card Round itself.

So, which teams should plan on sticking around longer than expected? Let’s take a look.

4. NL No. 5 San Diego Padres (+106) over NL No. 4 Chicago Cubs

This is one of those instances where injuries can define a series, and that applies to both teams. The Cubs just got All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker back from a left calf strain, while the Padres are without Ramón Laureano (fractured right index finger). At least veteran Padres shortstop Xander Bogaerts went 5-for-18 with a home run and four RBIs after coming back from a left foot fracture last week.

Regardless, we believe in the Cubs. As dangerous as it can be to cite instinct or a gut feeling, something just seems off about this year’s Padres team. San Diego’s .711 OPS was slightly below the league average of .719 despite having the third-fewest strikeouts, though their 152 home runs (trailing only the Pirates’ 117 and Cardinals’ 148) played a significant role.

It also helps that the Cubs have home-field advantage, and we’re sure that Wrigley Field will be loud and proud all week. Give us the Cubs handling the Padres without too many issues.

3. NL No. 6 Cincinnati Reds (+220) vs. NL No. 3 Los Angeles Dodgers

The Reds are a trendy upset pick, but we don’t see it. For all of their regular-season struggles, the Dodgers are still the Dodgers, and we’re not picking against Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman here. No team has won consecutive World Series since the 1998-2000 Yankees, though the NL West-winning Dodgers are certainly in an excellent position to break the drought.

“The whole reason I came here was to pitch in October,” said Dodgers pitcher Blake Snell, who will start Game 1 on Tuesday afternoon. “To challenge myself personally. To face the best when the stakes are the highest, that’s what I’ve always wanted. I couldn’t be more excited to be in this position.”

Reds fans should be concerned about shortstop Elly De La Cruz, who hit just .236 with four home runs and a .666 OPS in 284 second-half plate appearances. We can’t buy high on the Reds if we can’t trust De La Cruz. 

Cincinnati deserves plenty of praise for taking advantage of the Mets’ latest collapse and sneaking into the postseason. Unfortunately for Terry Francona, though, we’re picking the Dodgers to survive and advance. 

2. AL No. 3 Cleveland Guardians (+106) vs. AL No. 6 Detroit Tigers

It’s strange to think that the Tigers, who held a 10-game AL Central lead on Sept. 3 and finished behind the Guardians in the division, are favorites in this series. Although the Tigers have reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, is he really enough to help Detroit overcome their dreadful September? We don’t think so, especially not after the Guardians went 20-7 in September and limited opponents to 75 runs. 

The Tigers looked lost and mentally exhausted in the second half, which is a significant reason why they barely reached the postseason. Asking them to put such an awful 7-17 September behind them is too difficult a proposition. Meanwhile, the Guardians spent the second half doing what they always do: finding ways to beat teams even if they’re not going to dominate offensively. Incredibly, Cleveland won the division despite an AL-worst .670 team OPS. 

There is no such thing as easy money. However, you should definitely feel comfortable taking Cleveland to pull off the upset, even if it’s not really an “upset” in our eyes.

1. AL No. 5 Boston Red Sox (+150) over AL No. 4 New York Yankees

We’re surprised by the Yankees being such heavy favorites, too. Although the Yankees went 18-7 in September and outscored opponents 130-100, let’s not forget that the Red Sox won 9 of 13 during the regular season. Add in the fact that Red Sox ace Garret Corchet faces a strikeout-heavy Yankees lineup — only the Angels (1,627) and Rockies (1,531) had more strikeouts than the Yankees’ 1,463 — and you’ll understand our skepticism. 

The Red Sox defeated the Yankees in the 2018 AL Division Series and the 2021 Wild Card Series, which is only relevant here because Aaron Judge played on both teams. If Judge — who has historically struggled in the postseason despite his stellar regular-season numbers — couldn’t lead the Yankees over the Red Sox either time, why would we feel any different this fall?

We won’t go so far as to say the Red Sox will embark on a deep postseason run and win their fifth World Series since 2004. However, don’t be surprised if they defeat the Yankees without much trouble.

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