Cody Bellinger plans to opt out of his $25 million contract option with the New York Yankees. After a disappointing loss in the ALDS, New York turns its attention to another consequential offseason. The Yankees lost Juan Soto a year ago. Now, they could lose his replacement.
Bellinger is a challenging evaluation. He overperformed his metrics this season, with an expected average (.261) and slugging (.436) well below his actual average (.272) and slugging (.480). He was only in the 26th percentile for hard-hit rate (37.9) and the 36th percentile for barrel rate (7.5). But here's the thing: Bellinger also outperformed his metrics in 2024. He keeps on doing it, with a résumé that stacks up with any 29-year-old in MLB.
He's a former MVP, a World Series champ, a two-time All-Star and a Gold Glover in the outfield. Bellinger checks just about every box on the surface. He's a smart, disciplined hitter. He can slug 20-plus homers. He can steal 10-20 bases. He's going to defend any outfield position at a high level, and he can even slide down to first base. Even if the metrics seem to indicate a looming decline in production, Bellinger just keeps on defying conventional wisdom and doing a lot of positive things on the diamond.
Odds are, Bellinger will be well-compensated this offseason. Spotrac pins his market value at six years, $182.7 million, with an annual salary just over $30 million. That feels like a lot, but MLB players are getting paid more nowadays. It's the way of the world. There ought to be several dedicated suitors. Here are 10 teams with a real path to signing the former Rookie of the Year (yeah, the accolades just pile up).
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.
10. Kansas City Royals
The Kansas City Royals seem to recognize the finite window afforded to them by a generational talent like Bobby Witt Jr. While it's uncharacteristic of the Royals to shell out huge long-term contracts in free agency, their outfield depth chart is ripe for improvement. Mike Yastrzemski and Adam Frazier are coming off the books. Jac Caglianone was woefully unprepared for MLB pitching this season (and he's probably a first baseman in the grand scheme of things). It shan't be hard to plug Bellinger in as an everyday outfielder and a potential leadoff hitter with Witt protecting him (or vice versa).
Kansas City would need to break with tradition a bit, but Seth Lugo just got $20 million annually. Witt's extension kicks in at $36.1 million annually at its peak. The Royals aren't as cash-poor as one might think, and the pressure is mounting to build a winner for Witt's prime.
9. Los Angeles Angels
Bellinger spent the most successful years of his career in L.A., so he should be open to moving back. The Los Angeles Angels can't promise him the same competitive ceiling as the Dodgers, but what the Angels can promise is a lot of cash. Arte Moreno has proven utterly incompetent when it comes to cultivating a winning organization, but he's more than happy to spend money in hopes of one day contending.
Mike Trout's days of elite offensive production are waning. He deserves to go out with a puncher's chance. The Angels can't keep putting Jorge Soler in the field. Bellinger gives them another premium bat to anchor the lineup next to Trout and a significant defensive upgrade with positional flexibility. The main obstacle is convincing Bellinger to sign with a team that hasn't been to October in a decade.
8. Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox absolutely do not need another outfielder. In fact, Craig Breslow will probably spent a solid portion of this winter surveying the trade market for Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu. What Boston does need, however, is a first baseman.
Bellinger is not optimized as a defender at first base, but he's a more dependable bat than Triston Casas. Boston, we know, is looking to spend more aggressively in an attempt to catch New York and Toronto in the division. If Alex Bregman and Trevor Story both opt out, that just frees up more cap space to dump a huge offer on Bellinger's doorstep. He can still pick up the occasional spot start in the outfield between regular outings at first base. Boston has its fill of hard-hitting lefties, but Bellinger is good enough to warrant interest, even if it requires unconventional thinking. (Plus: A move that betters Boston and weakens the Yankees in one fell swoop is always worth considering.)
7. Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners are so, so close to glory. This team has an MVP foundation in Cal Raleigh, with a deep rotation, a solid bullpen brigade and plenty of secondary stars to round out the lineup. Now is the time for Seattle to push its chips in and be aggressive.
With Eugenio Suárez, Josh Naylor and others coming off the books, it shouldn't be too hard for the front office to justify the cost with Bellinger. He'd round out a dominant outfield depth chart alongside Julio Rodríguez and Randy Arozarena. The top of Seattle's lineup would rank among the most fearsome in MLB. He would dramatically improve the Mariners' corner defense. It all fits. Seattle does not traditionally bid on the level of bigger markets, and Bellinger might complicate the path to regular playing time for No. 4 prospect Harry Ford, but it's a swing worth taking. These World Series windows don't stay open in perpetuity.
6. Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs dealt Bellinger to the Yankees last offseason in what was effectively a salary dump to clear space for Kyle Tucker. Lo and behold, Tucker is also a free agent, and his return to Chicago is far from guaranteed. As such, there's a world in which the Cubs and Bellinger revisit their union.
Chicago has depth in the outfield, but top prospect Owen Caissie is probably a year or two away from consistent impact and Seiya Suzuki is better off as the DH. Plus, Bellinger can always move to first base as needed, with Michael Busch capable of sliding to third. The Cubs always cheap out in free agency, without fail, but there will be a lot of pressure to bounce back if Tucker leaves. Bellinger's production was awfully close to Tucker's this season, and he should come at a far more affordable price tag, relatively speaking.
5. San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants love to third-wheel their way through free agency every winter. San Francisco made a concerted effort to sign Shohei Ohtani two years ago, but it didn't work. Same for Juan Soto. Same for Corbin Burnes. This is an extremely aggressive front office under Buster Posey, and it's clear ownership is willing to spend money to field a contender.
Jung Hoo Lee and Heliot Ramos are both fine hitters, but flawed on defense. Drew Gilbert has a long future ahead of him, but he's just not up to par offensively right now, and San Francisco doesn't have much outfield talent coming up through the Minor League pipeline. That makes Bellinger a natural target — and one San Francisco might actually be able to deliver on, since his market won't balloon to the comic extremes of Ohtani or Soto.
4. New York Mets
Steve Cohen has the deepest pockets in MLB and thus we can never rule out the New York Mets, especially when a free agent like Bellinger addresses such a glaring need. New York's outfield was a mess this season: Soto has right field on lockdown for the next few years until he becomes a full-time DH, and Brandon Nimmo made a strong statement this season, but their current options in centerfield — Tyrone Taylor, Starling Marte, Cedric Mullins — all underwhelmed, and most if not all of them will be gone in the coming months.
Bellinger can give the Mets a solid outfield defender and another productive bat to pair with Soto and Lindor atop the lineup. Also, if David Stearns lets Pete Alonso walk, Bellinger could pick up important starts at first base. The Mets aren't going to sit out free agency, especially after their late-season flameout. Keep an eye on them. Also: Bellinger wouldn't need to move, which is a nice perk if it also comes with a raise. Just ask Soto.
3. Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies need a lot of help in the outfield. It's the primary weakness in a lineup that once again fell flat in October. Harrison Bader, their splashy deadline addition, is now a free agent. Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto are also coming off the books, which means Philadelphia could lose significant offensive firepower. The Phillies no doubt want to re-sign Schwarber (and probably Realmuto, too), but Dave Dombrowski has a mandate to win and a lot more flexibility than he has had in recent years.
If either Schwarber or Realmuto leave, it makes it easy to justify the expense for Bellinger, an ex-teammate of Trea Turner whose defense would be just as helpful as his offense on this roster. When he's at his best, Dombrowski never shies away from a hefty investment. Bellinger, still in the thick of his prime, would move the needle big time, especially if the Phils can bring back Schwarber, too.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
We've already heard the Los Angeles Dodgers connected to Kyle Tucker, the most expensive free agent in the marketplace. If they desire a slightly more affordable alternative, why not a reunion with 2020 NLCS MVP Bellinger, who has spent the last few years chasing the production he achieved in Los Angeles to begin his career?
The Dodgers need to replace Michael Conforto. Bellinger is more than that: He's another big bopper to pair with L.A.'s unmatched star power. Bellinger might complicate the developmental track for No. 1 prospect Josue De Paula, or even Daulton Rushing, who needs to flex to the outfield to avoid being stuck between Will Smith at catcher. But we're talking about the Dodgers. It's all about winning now, and money is no object.
1. New York Yankees
Both Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger are free agents this winter, which threatens to tear a huge hole in New York's depth chart. The hope is that Jasson Domínguez can eventually rise to the level of stable everyday outfielder, but the 22-year-old requires patience. Bellinger is more valuable than Grisham on the whole, thus he should be a top priority for the Yankees.
Despite opting out of his contract, Bellinger has expressed his love for the city and the organization. He'd clearly welcome a return if the price is right. Frankly, it's hard to imagine why the price wouldn't be right. New York has the financial liquidity and the competitive motivation necessary to bring Bellinger back.