Los Angeles Dodgers southpaw Clayton Kershaw, arguably the best pitcher of his generation, has reached the 3,000-strikeout plateau. Kershaw becomes the 20th pitcher to ever join that exclusive club, and it's fair to wonder whether he'll be the last.
To get to 3,000 strikeouts, pitchers need dominance, durability and longevity. Kershaw has had his share of durability struggles, but he's also struck out 300 batters in a season before and had one of the greatest peaks ever amid his 18-year tenure.
Charlie Morton has been in the game seemingly forever, but he's still a little less than 900 strikeouts away. Jacob deGrom has had ridiculous strikeout numbers throughout his career, but he's also struggled with injuries. Again, the question of whether anyone can reach 3,000 strikeouts again is one worth asking. If anyone does get there, though, there's a good chance it'll be one of these four hurlers.
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4) Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres
Again, for pitchers to reach 3,000 strikeouts, they need dominance, durability and longevity. So far, Cease has checked off two of these boxes.
When it comes to durability, few check that box as thoroughly as Cease, who has been one of the most durable starters in the game for quite a while. He's made all 17 of his starts this season for the San Diego Padres and has made at least 32 starts in each of the last four seasons. He even made all 12 starts during the shortened 2020 season. The only injury scare he's had in his big-league career came when he was struck by a line drive on his elbow in September of 2021. He wound up being completely fine. An injury can strike at any time, but he's as safe a bet as anyone to stay healthy.
As for dominance, well, Cease has a 28.5 percent strikeout rate over his career, an elite mark. He's consistently been among MLB's strikeout leaders. Longevity is the biggest question right now: Cease is 29 years old, and he's at 1,133 strikeouts. He'll need to pitch at least another decade and likely longer to even sniff 3,000 strikeouts. Is it likely? Of course not. Is it somewhat possible? Absolutely.
3) Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Putting Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes on a list like this is a gamble, but a worthwhile one. Skenes is only in his second MLB season, but struck out 170 batters in a rookie year to remember and has already fanned 115 in his sophomore campaign. At just 23 years old, if Skenes continues to pitch like he has thus far, he's got a great shot to get to 3,000.
The problem, of course, is we have no idea what's going to happen in the future. Will the flamethrower suffer the same fate so many pitchers who throw as hard as he does have had to battle through? Will Skenes continue to be elite in year five when everyone has the book on him? These are questions we do not know the answer to, ones that will obviously dictate whether he can flirt with 3,000 strikeouts or not.
This is a bet on potential. Skenes is full of it. If he lives up to it, 3,000 strikeouts will be well within his grasp. If he does not and/or has some rotten injury luck, he's got no shot. There's little, if any, room for error. Hopefully, Skenes can get there.
2) Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
Now we've reached the pitchers who are already somewhat in the area of 3,000 strikeouts. New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole ranks fifth among active pitchers in strikeouts and second among those shy of 3,000 with Kershaw now over that hump. The question is: Can he pick up the remaining 749 he needs?
Entering the season, it felt like a fair bet to assume the answer would be yes. Cole just signed a four-year deal to remain with the Yankees over the offseason, and with good health, he could've reached the 3,000 strikeout club by the end of that deal. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery before the 2025 season even began not only ended this season before it started for the right-hander, but he might miss part of 2026 as well.
Now, it's fair to wonder how Cole will perform when he does return. If he pitches like the star he's always been, which is entirely possible, he's got a shot to get to 3,000. How realistic is that, though? Cole will be 35 years old when he throws his next MLB pitch, and coming off a major injury. Does he have the four-ish elite seasons he needs to get to 3,000? We can only hope.
1) Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
If Chris Sale could've stayed healthy throughout his career, he probably would've been at 3,000 strikeouts already. Sale had stayed mostly healthy through his brief Atlanta Braves tenure, cracking the door wide open for him to get to 3,000 strikeouts, but a recent injury will keep him out of action at least until August. Now, he's 472 strikeouts away from reaching that milestone.
Sale is only 472 strikeouts away from 3,000, meaning that with a little more than two mostly healthy seasons, he should get there. While that's absolutely doable, can we trust Sale to be healthy enough?
I really hope so. He feels like the safest bet by far to get there of anyone. If he can stay healthy, he will get there. That's just the million-dollar question. Hopefully, his latest setback will be his last.