Red Sox conspiracy theories don't change reality of AL Cy Young race

The Boston Red Sox have performed well this season and are at the top of the American League Wild Card race. At 72-60, they're surging at the right time and are still just five games back of first place in the AL East. Much of their success can be attributed to the trade that brought Garrett Crochet to Boston: In 26 starts, the 26-year-old left-hander is 14-5 with a 2.38 ERA over 166.1 innings of work and has struck out 207 batters.

All of which has led Red Sox fans to, understandably, start beating the drum for Crochet to capture the AL Cy Young Award. That drumbeat got even louder on Monday night, when Crochet's only real competition for the award, reigning winner and Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, gave up six runs in a loss to the Athletics. After Skubal allowed a game-changing grand slam to Shea Langeliers in the bottom of the seventh, Red Sox insider Jared Carrabis was ready to declare this race all but over.

There was just one problem: While Skubal allowed six runs on the night, only one of those were earned, thanks to a Zach McKinstry error that preceded Langeliers' slam.

Skubal's ERA remains an AL-leading 2.28, just ahead of Crochet. Which has certain Red Sox fans crying foul:

Of course, we shouldn't really need to say this, but Skubal's final line was adjudicated correctly; he struck out two batters with the bases loaded, which should've gotten him out of the jam and in line for another win. Plus, his case to repeat this season is airtight regardless of any one individual ruling.

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Red Sox conspiracies shouldn't and won't change Cy Young race

Despite allowing six runs on Monday in Sacramento, Skubal is by far the favorite to win the Cy Young. While Crochet certainly is a contender, Skubal is still the easy choice. The reigning Cy Young has pitched 166 innings and struck out 212 batters. He also has a 5.8 WAR in contrast to Crochet's 5.2 WAR.

It would be remiss to assume that Crochet doesn't at least deserve consideration, as he has had quite a dominant season on the mound after breaking out in 2024 with the Chicago White Sox. But it also would be remiss to discount Skubal over one bad outing, especially when most of the runs he allowed were unearned. In that start, Skubal also struck out 12 batters, so it was far from a clunker.

Still, it will be interesting to see how the Cy Young race shapes up in the coming weeks. We are now just over a month away from the regular season's conclusion, and it is a tight race. But as of now, the road to winning that award still runs through Detroit, as Skubal is arguably the best starting pitcher in all of Major League Baseball and leads the league in WHIP, FIP, strikeouts, BB/9 and K/9.

We'll see if Crochet can ultimately catch and pass him in the race, but Skubal should still be the favorite as of now.