What the Boston Red Sox do at the MLB Trade Deadline feels less certain by the day. Craig Breslow has promised aggression since trading away Rafael Devers, but the latest rumors have suggested that it might be quieter than fans would like. The main focus, however, appears to still be getting a No. 2 starting pitcher behind Garrett Crochet, preferably one with club control after this season. And, while we don't know if the Red Sox are interested, it's shaping up like Boston might be a perfect match with the Pittsburgh Pirates for veteran right-hander Mitch Keller. Simply, both teams have what the other wants.
Keller is under club control through the 2028 season, which would fit right into the Red Sox's plans for controllable pitching, and the 29-year-old is enjoying a career year. Sure, you wouldn't recognize that with a 4-10 record, but welcome to Pirates baseball. The numbers have been high-quality, posting a 3.53 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, also noting a 3.42 FIP on the season, indicating that he's been as good as indicated by the raw statistics.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is reportedly looking for MLB-ready outfielders if they are going to move Keller. Given the fact that the Red Sox are potentially trying to clear out an outfield logjam and have top prospects as well who could fit that bill, it's no wonder that ESPN's David Schoenfield made a bold prediction that Boston would be the one to trade for Keller.
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Red Sox have the outfielders the Pirates need in a Mitch Keller trade
Whether we're talking about Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, top prospect Jhostynxon Garcia (better known as "The Password"), or even getting tricky with someone like Kristian Campbell, the Red Sox have a glut of outfielders right now that could be dealt. Roman Anthony is the future, Ceddanne Rafaela might be the best centerfielder in baseball, one of Duran or Abreu will likely stay, and then lefty masher Rob Refsnyder can platoon.
It's not a guarantee that the Red Sox trade from that surplus at the deadline, to be fair. Injuries are always lingering and it's not out of the question that Breslow and Boston ultimately wants to keep the depth as a position of strength. Having said that, if they do want to clear that out in any way, then moving one or a couple of those players for a starting pitching would make sense. And that brings us to Keller.
Whether with Keller or Paul Skenes or whoever, Pittsburgh needs more consistent offense and the Red Sox could absolutely provide that. It seems like a perfect match, but it does beg the question of if the Boston should actually be pursuing such a deal.
Should Mitch Keller be Boston's new top priority at the trade deadline?
Ultimately, while Keller would be a stabilizing improvement for the Red Sox rotation, he still shouldn't be the top guy on their radar. The cost, even if the match with the Pirates is there, is going to be enormous for a player with 3.5 years of control and pitching at this level. People have brushed back at the idea of trading for a Joe Ryan because of the price, but the control could make a Keller deal equally as expensive if not more so.
Beyond that, it seems more in Breslow's wheelhouse to start those conversations now and then explore them again in the offseason. That's what happened with Garrett Crochet and the deal they got before the 2025 season was far less prohibitive than what the White Sox were asking for at last year's trade deadline. It wouldn't be a shock to see something similar play out with Keller (or Ryan) this year.
That being said, the Red Sox should still be looking for an upgrade to the rotation, even if it's a rental to try and limit the prospect capital that they have to give up. If it's Keller, that's great and the deal makes sense with the pieces involved or desired from both teams. But the biggest point to make is that it doesn't have to be.