Red Sox remaining strength of schedule could flip tides of AL playoff race

The Red Sox strength of schedule just turned from a detriment to a positive down the stretch.
Boston Red Sox OF Roman Anthony
Boston Red Sox OF Roman Anthony | Winslow Townson/GettyImages

Despite the high Boston Red Sox vibes going into the All-Star break on a 10-game winning streak, it always felt like there was a sobering wake-up call waiting thereafter. The Red Sox infamously had the toughest post-All-Star schedule in baseball, and everyone was wondering if they'd survive it. But despite finishing at 2-4 with two series losses in the past week, they have survived it — and now the road has entirely opened up for Alex Cora's team with what the strength of schedule looks like now.

The Red Sox went 13-11 in the 24 games since the All-Star break, including more notably going an even 9-9 against the Phillies, Dodgers, Astros and Padres. Most importantly, Boston came out of that still in second place in the AL East and still holding onto the second AL Wild Card spot as well, firmly in position to still make the playoffs.

Even better, the remaining strength of schedule has completely flipped. The Red Sox gauntlet that they just ran through and withstood has taken their remaining SOS from the hardest and baseball to the eighth easiest in baseball, per Tankathon. It's more than just that, though! Here's how everything is starting to break Boston's way with the schedule:

  • Eighth easiest schedule in MLB for final 40 games
  • 24 of remaining 40 games against teams under .500
  • Only 13 remaining games against current playoff teams
  • 7 of those 13 games are against the Yankees, who the Red Sox are 5-1 against in 2025

Put simply, the Red Sox are in a far more advantageous situation now than they were immediately after the All-Star break. And the fact that they survived that portion could dramatically shift the tides in the AL playoff race.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.

Red Sox survived, now can take advantage of finishing schedule

For starters, if anyone is still dreaming of taking the AL East from the red-hot Blue Jays — the Red Sox enter the final 40 games of the year 4.5 games back of Toronto in the division — the current leaders in the division have the 11th-hardest remaining strength of schedule. And while the Yankees' schedule is actually easier than Boston's, New York has also been reeling of late. Furthermore, the Mariners, occupying the top wild card spot, have a slightly harder schedule than the Sox.

But what stands out with all of this is that Boston has remained one of the best teams in baseball since the start of June. Even after dropping two out of three to Houston, they've gone 39-24 since June 1, which is the third-best record in baseball in the majors. Only the Blue Jays left on the Red Sox schedule over the final four games have been better, but only by one game.

More than that, the Tigers, Guardians, Athletics and Diamondbacks have all been around .500 over that same span, while the Yankees, Pirates and Rays have been five or more games under .500. Boston is simply coming into its own while their upcoming opponents appear to largely be trending in the large direction over the past two months.

Of course, the Red Sox have to go out and execute to take advantage of this. But overall, things are about to turn in Boston's favor and the chance to finally return to the postseason now looks more optimistic than it even did after the 10-game winning streak going into the break.

More Boston Red Sox coverage and analysis