Reds' baffling pitching decision might be a stroke of postseason genius

Just 24 hours or so after leading the Cincinnati Reds to one of the most improbable playoff berths in recent baseball history, Terry Francona managed to bring the vibes down considerably. While ace Hunter Greene was always a lock to start Game 1 against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday night, Francona announced on Monday that it would be Zack Littell — a journeyman who doesn't miss many bats and has pitched to a 4.39 ERA since coming over from the Tampa Bay Rays this summer — who would start Game 2, rather than star lefty Nick Lodolo.

Immediately, Reds fans were up in arms, wondering why their two-time World Series champion manager would put the team behind the 8-ball in a series in which it was already a heavy underdog. And, to be clear, the decision does seem bizarre on its face: Lodolo brings both a higher floor and a higher ceiling, having pitched to a 3.33 ERA this season with 156 strikeouts in 156.2 innings. (He's even done it against the Dodgers before, having whiffed 11 batters in 5.1 innings of two-run ball against L.A. back in late July.)

Asked about the decision at his Monday press conference, Francona cited the fact that Lodolo was used in relief in Cincy's loss to the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday — a curious decision, to say the least, considering that not only were the Reds already losing at the time but the New York Mets were also losing to the Miami Marlins, meaning that Cincinnati didn't need to be quite so desperate to win Game 162.

Reading between the lines here, though, there might be a method to Francona's madness. It's entirely possible that Lodolo really is unavailable, that the team's rash pitching strategy to close the regular season will cost it dearly now that it's reached October. But it's also possible that Cincy's decided to play a bit of a cat-and-mouse game here, one that could force the Dodgers into some uncomfortable decisions.

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Reds might be baiting the Dodgers into a trap with Zack Littell gambit

At the end of his answer about the decision to start Littell over Lodolo, Francona added a tantalizing little nugget: "There's no mandatory limit on how much he has to pitch." Maybe I'm overthinking things, but that sure sounds like Littell's being viewed not as a traditional starter but something more like an opener — someone who can go through the order maybe one time, at most, before giving way to another bulk pitcher ... like, for example, Lodolo.

Lodolo probably isn't available for a full start on Wednesday, given that he left his previous outing last week with a groin injury (which the team deemed precautionary) and just threw another inning on Sunday. But he should have at least two or three innings in his arm, which raises the possibility that the Reds could use Littell as the starter in order to bait Dave Roberts into running out the Dodgers' best lefty-heavy lineup — only for Lodolo to come into the middle innings and suddenly have the platoon advantage.

With Littell on the mound, the Dodgers would likely go with Max Muncy, Hyeseong Kim and Michael Conforto in their starting nine, all players who are significantly better against righties than lefties. If Francona can get, say, two scoreless innings from Littell, then Lodolo could enter the game and force a difficult decision: Does Roberts go to his bench early in order to play the matchups, thereby burning several members of his bench earlier than he'd like, or does he allow Lodolo to have favorable matchups?

The Reds enter this series knowing they're going to have to ride their pitching if they have any hope for an upset. And that's not the worst strategy, considering how many bullets Francona has at his disposal between Greene, Lodolo, lefty Andrew Abbott and bullpen pieces like hard-throwing rookie Chase Burns. Cincy likely won't score very much against L.A., but if they can find a way to get to the late innings in a close, low-scoring game, suddenly they'd like their chances against a shaky Dodgers relief corps.