The New York Mets signed outfielder Juan Soto to a 15-year, $765 million contract back in December. So far, the deal appears to be working out pretty well: The Mets have gone through it a bit of late, currently holding the third National League Wild Card spot with a record of 71-61, but it's hard to blame Soto for that. He got off to a slow start, but he's still hitting .251/.390/.492 with 32 home runs, 78 RBI, 21 stolen bases a 4.6 WAR and an .882 OPS — star-caliber numbers.
Of course, New York didn't sign Soto for April or May or June; they signed him to mash on the biggest stage against the best competition. So, as the calendar turns to September, what if we took a look at how the contract has panned out based on Soto's performance against the Mets' biggest rivals? That alone could be a strong indicator that things have worked out just fine so far, and bodes well as the postseason approaches.
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Regrading Juan Soto's contract based on stats vs. Mets rivals
Let's start in the division. According to StatMuse, Soto is hitting .291 with 39 hits, 11 home runs, 23 RBI and 37 runs scored in 37 games vs. NL East opponents. Obviously, that doesn't paint the whole picture, as stats against the rest of the league need to be taken into account and fewer games are played between division rivals these days.
Now, every team plays each other at least once during the regular season, so the Mets are getting looks at teams that they would not have seen before the balanced schedule was introduced in 2023. But Soto's stats vs. the NL East are quite good, and based on that alone, the contract appears to be a success: He has an OPS of at least .800 every division rival save for Miami, including blistering marks against the Braves (1.177 OPS) and Nationals (1.053).
Even though fewer games are played between division rivals, the Mets see the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins 13 times a year. That's more than they face off against every other team. The NL East is not as strong this year with the Braves out of contention, but the Mets have played several games against the Phillies, which means they have gotten plenty of chances to play good teams.
What about some of New York's other prominent opponents? While Soto faces the East most often, the Mets wanted him in their lineup to 1) win a World Series and 2) overtake the Yankees as the true kings of the city. So far, the results are a bit more mixed on that front: Soto slashed .238/.385/.429 in two series against the Bronx Bombers this year, struggling at Yankee Stadium before waking up a bit in the rematch at Citi Field. He's also been quiet in seven games against the Los Angeles Dodgers, hitting just .148.
So, if you were to regrade the contract based on how he has performed against his own division, then the grade would likely be very high. But the Mets don't just have NL East supremacy in mind; they're in this to become the new Yankees, a financial behemoth and destination for all the biggest names in the sport (and fans around the world). Odds are pretty good that Soto will help with that; he remains among the very best hitters in baseball, after all. But he still needs to offer a couple signature moments against Steve Cohen's peers to cement his legacy.
Contract Regrade: A-