Regrading the Padres Mason Miller trade after his NL Wild Card gem

After digging themselves an early hole in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card series, the San Diego Padres bounced back with a commanding 3-0 victory over the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday afternoon. That sets up an do-or-die Game 3 on Thursday, with both teams facing elimination.

There were several standout contributors for the Padres in Game 2, but none made a louder impression than Mason Miller. The 26-year-old reliever struck out three straight in the bottom of the seventh. He axed Cubs catcher Carson Kelly with a painted 104.5 MPH fastball on the low outside corner, which stands as the fastest pitch ever recorded in the MLB postseason during the pitch-tracking era.

Miller has now faced six batters through two postseason appearances with the Padres. He has six strikeouts. He has officially struck out his last 11 batters faced dating back to the regular season. It can't get much better than that.

This is why the Padres sold the farm for Miller at the trade deadline. While he experienced his share of turbulence in the regular season, Miller is 26, with multiple years of team control left. And, when he's on, there is not a more pound-for-pound dominant pitcher in MLB. His ceiling stretches beyond even the likes of Aroldis Chapman or Jhoan Durán. When Miller has his best stuff, he is effectively unhittable.

Much was made over the valuable assets San Diego parted with to acquire Miller, but after two postseason gems on back-to-back days, Padres fans are probably just happy to have that dude in the building. Let's revisit the specifics of the deal.

Padres-Athletics Mason Miller trade details

The Padres were extremely aggressive (and some would argue shortsighted) in trading away prospects for win-now pieces. Eduarniel Nuñez, the No.16 prospect in the A's farm system, was the lowest-ranked of four prospects brought back in the Miller trade. Oakland — er, sorry, Sacramento? — brought back three pitchers who will be rotation or bullpen regulars within the next couple years, plus a potential generational talent in Leo De Vries, who is dominating Triple-A as a teenager.

In addition to Miller, the Padres received lefty J.P. Sears, a controllable starter who made a brief cameo after the deadline but was swiftly demoted. He was a throw-in, essentially, but Miller is the main course, and the only reason San Diego fans can feel remotely good about the haul A.J. Preller sacrificed.

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Athletics should still feel good about trading Mason Miller

Nuñez has already made 10 appearances for the A's bullpen after the trade. Báez will probably join him with the MLB squad full-time in 2026. Nett is still a bit further out in Double-A, but he is their No. 4 prospect, with velocity in the upper-90s and a burgeoning off-speed arsenal that could make him a top-end starter before long. The A's need all the pitching help they can get. Some would argue that opting for depth over a single star reliever was the right decision.

De Vries is the key that will unlock a successful outcome for the A's, however. He could be playing at Sutter Health Park within the next couple years, despite his extreme youth. That's how dominant he has been at every level of competition. One can't help but think of Juan Soto, who came into the Majors whacking home runs at 19 years old. We shouldn't pin that level of expectation on De Vries, of course, but his skill set is vast, deploying all five tools and making exceptionally polished swing decisions for, again, a teenager. We just don't see players this far ahead of the curve very often.

The A's are probably closer to contention than folks realize. Nick Kurtz put up MVP numbers this season, he just didn't get called up early enough. Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom and Lawrence Butler are all burgeoning stars in their own right, capable of supplying varying degrees of power in addition to solid defense.

Add De Vries to the mix, and the A's might be one of the best offensive teams in MLB come 2027. All that's really missing is pitching, and that is what the A's stocked up on with the Miller trade (in addition to other moves around the deadline). The A's farm system is loaded with upstart arms looking to crack the Majors in short order. This team is coming to grow into something fearsome without breaking the bank. Dare we say it ... the A's front office did a heck of a job this season. Now, here's to hoping they can nail the transition from up-and-coming to arrived.

Miller's presence will be sorely missed in the bullpen once the A's actualize their competitive potential, but if they can get a franchise shortstop, a couple quality relievers and a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter out of this trade — which feels plausible — then that is a victory, no doubt about it.

A's trade re-grade: A-

Padres' Mason Miller trade hinges on postseason success

The Miller trade, so far, is working out for the Padres in the short term, as expected. He's the best setup arm in arguably MLB's best bullpen, with a 0.77 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in 23.1 regular-season innings post-trade. Now he's waltzing through Chicago in the Wild Card round, meeting the moment in his first taste of actual competitive baseball at the highest level.

But at the end of the day, we can't fully pass judgement on this trade from either side, especially not San Diego's. The Padres gave up a potential foundational piece in De Vries — a successor to Manny Machado's crown on the left side of the infield and a new bat to build the lineup around post-Soto. We don't know if De Vries will achieve his full potential with the A's, but we also don't know if San Diego will actually accomplish anything of note with Miller.

What if the Padres lose tomorrow's Game 3? He's under contract through 2029, so the Padres have a long window, but he's only a reliever. Even the best reliever is just never going to provide the same value as an everyday, star-level shortstop, should De Vries get to that point. More meaningfully, the A's have an even longer window of club control with De Vries now.

It's a bit reductive and pointless to say the Padres "need" to win a World Series with Miller in order to justify this trade, but that is the territory Preller is treading in. The Padres made this trade (and several other ambitious moves at the deadline) for the explicit purpose of going all-out this season. If we get to 2029 and De Vries is the best player in Las Vegas (?), San Diego hasn't won a World Series and Miller decides to pick up and sign a long-term deal in a bigger market, folks are going to look back on this trade as a failure. A shortsighted misallocation of resources.

Now, if the Padres go deep into October a few times and Miller just strikes out everyone he crosses paths with, then Padres fans will sleep soundly at night. It is undeniably cool (and beneficial) to have a dude as emphatically dominant as Miller, even if he's only good for threeish outs per game.

Padres trade re-grade: B-