Rob Thomson's patience got the last laugh for the surging Phillies

Philadelphia's quiet trade deadline and subsequent commitment to struggling vets has proven incredibly prescient.
Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins | Rich Storry/GettyImages

The Philadelphia Phillies are winners of five straight, including a four-game sweep of the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park this week. That leaves them with a commanding 12.0-game lead in the NL East, with the Milwaukee Brewers and the No. 1 overall seed in the National League still within reach.

Philadelphia has gone on this little run without Zack Wheeler and, more recently, without Trea Turner. The Phillies are weathering the storm of key injuries better than any other contender in MLB right now. For this team, with this roster, with arguably its two best players hurt, to exude such positive vibes in mid-September is a borderline miracle. How is Philadelphia doing it?

Well, a lot of credit belongs to Rob Thomson. We can give Dave Dombrowski a tip of the cap, too. His two trade deadline additions, Harrison Bader and Jhoan Durán, are both paying off big time. But really it's Thomson who deserves his flowers: The long-time skipper makes his share of controversial decisions, but there's a reason the Phillies are in the thick of the postseason race every season. And there's a reason this team has performed so admirably in the face of what should be crippling absences.

Thomson is giving us all a lesson on the virtue of patience.

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For Rob Thomson and the Phillies, patience has paid off

When the Phillies acquired Bader and Durán at the deadline, most fans were ready to pull the plug on half the lineup. Max Kepler was whiffing his way through his worst season in years. Bryson Stott was underperforming, again. Brandon Marsh was viewed as little more than a faltering platoon bat.

When Bader in particular arrived, he was — on paper — the Phillies' best outfielder. And he definitely is, as his recent hot streak shows. But even then, Bader did not immediately start every game with the Phillies. Thomson essentially used him as a platoon option behind Marsh and Kepler, allowing Philly's struggling vets to keep stacking at-bats. Many thought it was in vain.

Flash forward to September, and Kepler is one of the hottest hitters in MLB. Since Aug. 1, Kepler is batting .302 with a .906 OPS, five home runs and a 149 wRC+.

In July, most Phillies fans were calling for Kepler to be DFA'd. Him starting over Bader, consistently, was viewed as a blatant misallocation of resources. It was, in a sense, but Thomson saw something. He frequently cited Kepler's hard-hit rate and bad luck as reasons to believe in a turnaround. He believed, without fail, that Kepler would break through eventually. And he was right.

Marsh has been similarly dominant of late, batting .333 with a .939 OPS and four home runs since Aug. 1. He's an everyday outfielder. Frankly, he has been Philadelphia's most dependable non-Schwarber, non-Turner, non-Harper bat for more of this season than the average fan cares to admit. Factor in Bader's own dominance over the past month and change (.342 average and .945 OPS with four home runs), and suddenly the Phillies have, like, the best outfield in the National League. What once spelled their doom has turned into a genuine strength.

Is that "sustainable"? Almost certainly not, but it's September. The Phillies don't need this to last forever, just for a few more weeks. And while these are outlier numbers, it's not like Marsh, Kepler and Bader haven't produced at a high level before. There's a reason Kepler was able to net $10 million in free agency. The lefty has always produced significant pop at the plate. His struggles early in the season were equally aberrational, not a new normal. Thankfully, Thomson was able to see through the noise and stay committed to a talented player.

And lest we forget, it's not just the outfield. Stott has been on a heater as well, going from borderline unplayable early in the season to a top-five second baseman in all of baseball.

The Phillies are the hottest team in the National League. In MLB, period. That can go away in a flash, but with such a wide-open field in the World Series race, it's hard not to bet on the team with forward momentum and a lot of talent that is coming together at an opportune moment. If Turner gets back for the postseason — which is the expectation, for now — then the Phillies will be cooking with gas.

Phillies are incredibly deep on paper and the NL isn't ready

I'm not going to sit here and gloss over past postseason failures or fail to acknowledge the extreme volatility inherent to this roster. Kepler, Bader and Marsh are all good players, but none of them are quite as good as those post-Aug. 1 numbers suggest. So regression is inevitable, and the Phillies lineup may struggle to overcome any major regression in October.

That said ... how can the Phillies not feel good about their chances right now? The pitching staff is rolling. Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez and Jesús Luzardo strung together some of their best outings of the season in this week's sweep of the Mets. The bullpen looks remarkably solid with Durán bringing up the rear and midseason signing David Robertson throwing vintage stuff.

The main concern with Philadelphia has always been the offense. That lineup went sleepy too often in their first-round exit a year ago. At the same time, however, it's not like Bryce Harper isn't known for his postseason heroics. Turner, if he gets back, is the most consistent on-base threat in the National League right now. Schwarber will almost certainly finish second in MVP voting and first in home runs.

Philadelphia's top of the lineup is rock solid. JT Realmuto has been around the block a few times, too. If the outfield trio (and Stott) can manage even a fraction of their current production in the playoffs, the Phillies' lineup will feature precious few holes. And, given the state of the rest of the National League — the slumping Dodgers, the imploding Padres, the absolutely dead-in-the-water Mets — it's hard to find a team with better vibes. The Brewers, sure, but in terms of top-end talent and postseason pedigree, Philadelphia has a clear edge. If their current pace continues, Philadelphia might gain an edge in the standings, too.

Of course this could all end badly. It normally does in Philadelphia. But man, the Eagles just won the Super Bowl, Joel Embiid is shooting without a knee brace and maybe anything is possible. The Phillies are close to something special, and Rob Thomson is (part of the reason) why.