Roki Sasaki's Dodgers return may only make disappointing rookie season worse

The Los Angeles Dodgers are slowly but surely restoring their rotation to full strength. Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow are back in the swing of things. Shohei Ohtani went four innings deep in his most recent start. And now, 23-year-old rookie phenom Rōki Sasaki is due back in early September, per LA Times' Jack Harris.

Sasaki is currently in a throwing program, due for a three-inning live batting practice this weekend. If all goes well, he could start a rehab assignment with the Dodgers' minor league affiliates soon after.

That said, just because he's almost healthy, that does not mean the Dodgers will depend on Sasaki down the stretch — especially when it comes to the postseason. The rookie has struggled in limited exposure this season, posting a 4.72 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in eight starts. He only has 24 strikeouts in 34.1 innings.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters that L.A. will take the 13 best arms into the postseason, hinting that a spot on the playoff roster is not guaranteed for Sasaki, despite the team's investment in him.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the Discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.

Dodgers not ready to commit to Rōki Sasaki in the playoffs

This is probably the appropriate stance. After all the offseason fanfare around Sasaki's free agency, it can be easy to forget that he's a 23-year-old rookie. Most young pitchers not named Paul Skenes or Jacob Misiorowski need time to find their footing in MLB. Sasaki was an outright superstar in Japan, but the level of competition is much higher in MLB. It's also a completely new mound setup; there's a lot for him to adjust to.

One can't help but think back to offseason reports of Sasaki preferring less of a spotlight. More of a chance to develop without the pressure of immediate World Series hopes. Well, he picked the Dodgers, which puts him directly in the spotlight alongside some of the most talented players in the world. It doesn't help that fellow countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto joined last season and already looks like a Cy Young candidate when healthy. Yamamoto was a couple years older than Sasaki upon his debut, but Sasaki was billed as a generational pitching talent. That comes with outsized (and perhaps unfair) expectations.

Sasaki's command just was not where it needed to be before a shoulder injury derailed his campaign. It's hard to expect immediate improvement as he works his way back from a major injury on a condensed, win-now timeline. So, while the Dodgers plan to keep Sasaki in his starting role, the postseason is far from a guarantee.

Dodgers can afford to take it slow with Rōki Sasaki

One benefit to being the infinitely talent-rich Dodgers is that Sasaki can take it slow. The Dodgers don't need him on the bump every few days in October. This team will run through the gauntlet of Glasnow, Snell and Ohtani, some of the best aces in MLB.

Whether he's kept off of the postseason roster entirely or moved to a bullpen role, Sasaki will be just fine long term. The Dodgers can probably get more bang for their buck with Sasaki as a leverage reliever in the playoffs, should Roberts take that route. If the club prefers to keep him in a starting routine and simply ice the rookie in October, he still gets to watch how a bunch of established stars handle the rigors of postseason baseball. It will be a valuable learning experience.

Dodgers fans obviously hoped for more immediate contributions from Sasaki this season, but patience is a virtue. In this case, it's the only reasonable way to approach Sasaki's development. If he comes back and is throwing gas, awesome. But if he's not, so be it. The Dodgers have plenty of time to get Sasaki up to his expected All-Star level in 2026 and beyond.