Even after their loss on Monday, the 62-44 Chicago Cubs have the second-best record in the National League and are just 1.0 game behind the Milwaukee Brewers for first place in the NL Central. They're in the World Series conversation, but to become World Series favorites, Jed Hoyer will have to add a high-end starting pitcher. ESPN's Jeff Passan believes they should do just that, but his target, Cleveland Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber, would leave a lot to be desired.
"Chicago needs to land at least one starting pitcher at this deadline, and the former AL Cy Young winner is very available. He still hasn't pitched in the big leagues this season, but his stuff has looked crisp during his three minor league outings, according to scouts who have seen him, and the acquisition cost won't be nearly as prohibitive as that of getting other pitchers. The ceiling, meanwhile, could be every bit as high, and while there's inherent risk involved with a pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery -- particularly one with a $16 million player option -- it's a risk a team like the Cubs should feel plenty comfortable taking," Passan wrote.
Passan is correct with his assessment that the Cubs need to land at least one starting pitcher, and, when Bieber is right, he's absolutely the kind of pitcher the Cubs should be pursuing. There's one problem, though - we don't know if Bieber is right. Bieber is, as Passan noted, coming off Tommy John Surgery, so there's inherent risk involved. He's looked pretty good in rehab starts, but that doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. Passan believes the Cubs should be comfortable taking the risk, but are we sure about that?
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Cubs must acquire more of a sure thing than Shane Bieber at trade deadline
Let's take a look at the state of the Cubs' rotation. Chicago's ace, Justin Steele, is out for the season after undergoing elbow surgery. Chicago's co-ace, Shota Imanaga, is healthy now, but missed a month with an injury. The Cubs' No. 3 starter, Matthew Boyd, has had a career year, but he's run into quite a bit of good luck, and he's already thrown more innings this season than he has since 2019. Guys like Colin Rea and Cade Horton have pitched well, but they aren't exactly high-end postseason starters. Oh yeah, Jameson Taillon is hurt as well.
So to sum up, the Cubs' rotation has injury questions and lacks high-end talent outside of Imanaga and Boyd. Why would the Cubs want to add another pitcher with injury concerns who might not even be his best?
Again, Bieber, when healthy, is a bonafide ace. However, we've seen pitchers come back from Tommy John Surgery and struggle immediately. Sandy Alcantara has been one of the worst pitchers in the sport this season. Spencer Strider has fared a bit better, but even he's not looked nearly as dominant as he did pre-injury. Bieber might be an anomaly, but he might not find it until next season.
If he's not elite for the Cubs down the stretch and the Cubs don't win the World Series, they might've blown their best shot at winning it all. The 2025 season is their only one in which they're guaranteed to have Kyle Tucker. Why not just add the best arm possible to go all-in right now?
The Cubs are not in a position to add another risk to a rotation full of them when they should be in World Series or bust mode right now. Adding Bieber is fine, but only if the Cubs add a proven high-end starter alongside him. Making Bieber their big deadline addition might save the Cubs some prospect capital, but it's setting Chicago up for a frustrating end to its 2025 season.