Major League Baseball announces its Cy Young Award winners in mid-November, and when it does, there's no doubt that Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes will be walking to the stage to pick up their trophies. Skenes will almost certainly be a unanimous choice in the National League, and though Skubal faced some stiff competition from Garrett Crochet, he should also win handily.
There was a time when the American League and the National League were two very distinct entities, so it made sense that each league got its own set of awards. Until 1997, the only way American League and National League teams could meet was in the World Series, and for all intents and purposes, they may as well have been playing two different sports since the AL had the designated hitter and the NL didn't. Consider that Ernie Banks and Rod Carew each had overlapping 19-year Hall of Fame careers, and not only did they never play against each other, because they never reached the Fall Classic, Banks never once played against an AL team and Carew never once played against an NL team.
That all began to change in 1997 when interleague play was introduced. Major League Baseball dipped its toes in the water at first, with each team only playing 15 or 16 games against the other league, and only then on designated interleague dates. Today, interleague play is year-round, and there's not a single day on the schedule that an interleague game isn't being played. Every team plays every team each year, so there's no longer any mystique about teams and players that each fanbase never gets to see. The universal designated hitter has also been in effect since 2022, a move whch put the final nail in the coffin of AL and NL differentiation.
The homogeneity between the leagues has made the fact that each still hands out their own awards a bit of an anachronism. In 1985, it made sense. Now? It just feels unnecessary. To be clear, I'm still in favor of giving out two Cy Youngs, two MVPs, two Rookies of the Year, etc. Imagine how difficult it would be to win anything if there was only one trophy to give out? One of Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh are going to go home empty-handed as it is, but if they were also going against Shohei Ohtani, that would just be cruel.
I'm always in favor of recognizing greatness, but it's still fun to think about what it would be like if there was one winner and that's it. In an ironic twist, it would hearken back to baseball's old days, when there was no such thing as Wild Cards and multiple division winners. You win the pennant or you sit at home in October.
If there was only one Cy Young to be won, the battle between Skubal and Skenes would be a Godzilla vs. King Kong-level throwdown. This is the Ali-Frazier of painting the black, the Magic-Bird of straight gas, and the Federer-Nadal of tying hitters in knots. These are two absolute aces, both of whom are at the peak of their powers. Which one reigns supreme?
Skubal vs. Skenes: Which ace has had the best year?
Choosing between Skubal and Skenes is one of those classic problems with no wrong answer, but what we're trying to do is see which one is just a tiny bit more right. Let's go to the stats to begin our comparison.
First up is ERA. For the second year in a row, Skenes is under 2.00, this time with a sparkling 1.97. Skubal's is fantastic too, and a career-low, but his 2.21 can't quite match up. He's given up seven more earned runs in 7.2 more innings, which shows just how close these guys are. One uncharacteristically bad outing by Skenes and they'd be even. Advantage Skenes
When it comes to keeping opposing batters off base, Skubal and Skenes are similarly outstanding. Skubal has a .200 batting average against, while Skenes is a hair better at .199. Skubal's walked nine fewer guys, which is why his WHIP is 0.89 compared to Skenes' 0.95. Advantage Skubal
Opponents hit the ball hard 7 percent more often against Skenes, but only 11 of those swings have resulted in home runs, compared to 18 for Skubal. Everything balances out in the end, as both allow a near-identical OPS of .559 for Skubal and .558 for Skenes. No advantage
There's no better indicator of a pitcher's dominance than his ability to strike hitters out. Needless to say, these guys excel in this category. Skubal relies on a devastating changeup, a 100 mph four-seamer, a runaway sinker and a lesser-used but still highly effective slider to blow hitters away. He's second in the majors with 241 strikeouts. Skenes is tied with Logan Webb for third with 216 thanks to a lethal assortment of his own that includes an electric fastball, his signature splinker, a high-end sweeper and an unhittable changeup that he mostly throws to lefties. There are many ways to skin a cat, but Skubal's 25 extra strikeouts mean he skinned it a little bit better. Advantage Skubal
Skubal vs. Skenes: The final verdict
Statistically, this one is almost too close to call. If we go beyond the box score, Skubal gets extra credit for being the ace of a team with a magic number of 1 to clinch a playoff spot, but we can't penalize Skenes for being consigned to the abysmal Pirates. If anything, he deserves a boost for bringing it every start for a team that never contended at any point. Skubal is 13-6 this year, while Skenes is, unbelievably, just 10-10. As a Mets fan whose favorite pitcher of all-time is Jacob deGrom (before he left, at least), I feel that lack of run support in my soul.
Skenes was this one of this year's MLB the Show cover athletes, and alongside his famous girlfriend Livvie Dunne, he's one half of baseball's most famous power couple. The former national champion and No. 1 overall pick brings that rock star energy. Skubal isn't a household name among casual fans the way Skenes is, but his story is a great one, too. As someone who had a single Division I offer coming out of high school and was later drafted in the 29th round before coming back to school and going in the ninth, he's aspirational proof that you don't have to be the golden child to be the best pitcher in the game. He also earned serious points for his human and heartfelt reaction to hitting the Guardians' David Fry in the face with a pitch on Tuesday.
None of the preceding paragraph should matter when voting for an award, but we all know that narratives do mean something in reality.
This vote would come down to the slimmest of margins. Skenes' sub 2.00 ERA is impossible to ignore, but Skubal has somehow been even better than when he won the AL pitching Triple Crown last year. By a whisker, I'm going with the Tigers lefty.